FC Alverca 1:1 Santa Clara: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

FC Alverca Home 0.41 xG · 5 shots

Santa Clara Away 1.41 xG · 15 shots

11 Santa Clara had the better chances, but it finished level

A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 36%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FC Alverca's attack: 0.41 xG against 1.01 projected (−0.60). Santa Clara produced 1.41 xG against 0.97 projected (+0.44).

Goals

69' Vivaldo FC Alverca · 0.31 xG chance 1–0
87' Brenner Santa Clara · 0.58 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Alverca: 33%
Draw: 36% What happened
Santa Clara: 31%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Alverca 1.01 0.41 -0.60

Santa Clara 0.97 1.41 +0.44

FC Alverca produced 0.60 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Alverca Santa Clara

Shots: 5; 15
On target: 1; 3
Inside the box: 3; 10
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.09; 0.95
Set-piece xG: 0.31; 0.47
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.41 for FC Alverca and 1.41 for Santa Clara.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 1.82 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Alverca
Santa Clara
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Alverca

1.06 xG created 1.35 xGA

L 0.79 created, 0.62 conceded against FC Porto
D 1.27 created, 0.90 conceded against Estoril Praia
L 0.46 created, 0.56 conceded against Famalicão
L 1.66 created, 2.59 conceded against FC Porto
D 1.75 created, 1.29 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
L 0.41 created, 2.12 conceded against Sporting

Santa Clara

1.29 xG created 0.85 xGA

D 1.86 created, 0.78 conceded against FC Arouca
W 1.37 created, 0.61 conceded against CD Nacional
L 0.47 created, 0.85 conceded against FC Porto
D 1.43 created, 1.23 conceded against CD Nacional
W 1.27 created, 0.58 conceded against Académico Viseu FC
W 1.36 created, 1.05 conceded against Famalicão

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Alverca: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Alverca against Santa Clara before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.00	+7.6%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.50	+2.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Alverca	33.0%	36.1%	−3.1 pp	3.03
Draw	35.9%	31.3%	+4.6 pp	2.79
Santa Clara	31.2%	32.6%	−1.5 pp	3.21

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Alverca to score	66.4%	64.5%	+1.9 pp	1.51
FC Alverca not to score	33.6%	35.5%	−1.9 pp	2.97
Santa Clara to score	65.4%	64.5%	+0.9 pp	1.53
Santa Clara not to score	34.6%	35.5%	−0.9 pp	2.89
Both teams to score	45.5%	45.3%	+0.2 pp	2.20
Both teams not to score	54.5%	54.7%	−0.2 pp	1.84
FC Alverca 2+ goals	26.7%	29.1%	−2.4 pp	3.74
FC Alverca at most 1 goal	73.3%	70.9%	+2.4 pp	1.36
Santa Clara 2+ goals	25.3%	29.1%	−3.8 pp	3.96
Santa Clara at most 1 goal	74.7%	70.9%	+3.8 pp	1.34
Over 1.5 goals	63.2%	62.5%	+0.7 pp	1.58
Under 1.5 goals	36.8%	37.5%	−0.7 pp	2.72
Over 2.5 goals	31.8%	37.5%	−5.7 pp	3.15
Under 2.5 goals	68.2%	62.5%	+5.7 pp	1.47

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Alverca sample: 20 matches
Santa Clara sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.