xgEdge

Expected goals

Rio Ave expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Liga Portugal · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Rio Ave's attacking and defensive expected goals in Liga Portugal 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Rio Ave xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.54 xG per match
#18/18
Attack (xG per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Benfica 2.32
#2 FC Porto 2.26
#3 Sporting 2.01
#4 Vitória SC 1.77
#5 FC Alverca 1.40
#6 Santa Clara 1.35
#7 Gil Vicente 1.31
#8 Académico Viseu FC 1.30
#9 Sporting Braga 1.25
#10 FC Arouca 1.24
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 1.23
#12 CD Nacional 1.15
#13 Famalicão 0.99
#14 Marítimo 0.94
#15 Casa Pia 0.89
#16 Estoril Praia 0.85
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.54
League avg
1.31
Total
3.78 7 matches
Defence
1.92 xGA per match
#18/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Sporting Braga 0.65
#2 Benfica 0.65
#3 Santa Clara 0.69
#4 Vitória SC 0.77
#5 Sporting 0.79
#6 Gil Vicente 0.88
#7 FC Porto 0.98
#8 Famalicão 1.25
#9 Marítimo 1.32
#10 FC Arouca 1.38
#11 Estoril Praia 1.62
#12 CF Estrela Amadora 1.63
#13 Académico Viseu FC 1.71
#14 Moreirense 1.73
#15 FC Alverca 1.74
#16 Casa Pia 1.77
#17 CD Nacional 1.87
#18 Rio Ave 1.92
League avg
1.31
Total
13.42 7 matches
xG difference
-1.38 xGD per match
#18/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Benfica +1.66
#2 FC Porto +1.28
#3 Sporting +1.22
#4 Vitória SC +0.99
#5 Santa Clara +0.67
#6 Sporting Braga +0.60
#7 Gil Vicente +0.43
#8 FC Arouca -0.14
#9 Famalicão -0.26
#10 FC Alverca -0.34
#11 Marítimo -0.38
#12 CF Estrela Amadora -0.40
#13 Académico Viseu FC -0.41
#14 CD Nacional -0.72
#15 Estoril Praia -0.76
#16 Casa Pia -0.87
#17 Moreirense -1.06
#18 Rio Ave -1.38
League avg
0.00
Total
-9.64 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.46 xPts per match
#18/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Benfica 2.40
#2 FC Porto 2.22
#3 Sporting 2.17
#4 Vitória SC 1.96
#5 Santa Clara 1.93
#6 Sporting Braga 1.83
#7 Gil Vicente 1.76
#8 FC Arouca 1.37
#9 Famalicão 1.18
#10 CF Estrela Amadora 1.13
#11 Académico Viseu FC 1.08
#12 Marítimo 1.07
#13 CD Nacional 1.06
#14 FC Alverca 1.06
#15 Casa Pia 0.91
#16 Estoril Praia 0.82
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.46
League avg
1.39
Total
3.20 vs 4 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Rio Ave's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Liga Portugal. They rank #18 for xG difference at -1.38 per match, from the league's lowest shot volume and the league's lowest chance quality. Their 5 goals are 1.22 above 3.78 xG, while 4 points are 0.80 above 3.20 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.66 xG from penalties
5 3.78 +1.22 scored 1.22 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
15 13.42 +1.58 conceded 1.58 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
4 3.20 +0.80 0.80 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Rio Ave are 1.22 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +1.51, against CF Estrela Amadora on Mon 14/09.

Goals
5
xG
3.78
Gap
+1.22
Sun 09/08 Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Fri 28/08 Sun 06/09 Mon 14/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.19 -0.77 +0.53 +0.06 -0.26 +1.51 +1.22 -0.19 -0.58 +1.30 -0.47 -0.32 +1.77 -0.29 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Rio Ave: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 09/08 Gil Vicente 0 0.19 -0.19 -0.19
Sat 15/08 FC Porto 0 0.58 -0.58 -0.77
Sat 22/08 Estoril Praia 2 0.70 +1.30 +0.53
Fri 28/08 Sporting 0 0.47 -0.47 +0.06
Sun 06/09 Santa Clara 0 0.32 -0.32 -0.26
Mon 14/09 CF Estrela Amadora 3 1.23 +1.77 +1.51
Sat 19/09 FC Alverca 0 0.29 -0.29 +1.22

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Rio Ave xG trend

Current form -1.58 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 0 of 7 matches. The worst was against FC Alverca on Sat 19/09 (-3.01).

npxG · last 6
0.47
npxGA · last 6
2.05
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.38 Sun 09/08 -1.39 Sat 15/08 -0.46 Sat 22/08 -1.41 Fri 28/08 -1.58 Sun 06/09 -1.62 Mon 14/09 -3.01 Sat 19/09 -1.41 season avg
Rio Ave: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 09/08 Gil Vicente 0.31 0.69 -0.38 -0.38
Sat 15/08 FC Porto 0.58 1.97 -1.39 -0.89
Sat 22/08 Estoril Praia 0.70 1.16 -0.46 -0.74
Fri 28/08 Sporting 0.47 1.88 -1.41 -0.91
Sun 06/09 Santa Clara 0.32 1.90 -1.58 -1.04
Mon 14/09 CF Estrela Amadora 0.45 2.07 -1.62 -1.14
Sat 19/09 FC Alverca 0.29 3.30 -3.01 -1.41

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.45 npxG and 1.85 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 3 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
+0.10 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 6 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
+0.04 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.10 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 3 hardest of 18

  1. FC Alverca Away −0.10
  2. CF Estrela Amadora Home −0.13
  3. Santa Clara Away +0.22
  4. Sporting Home +0.55
  5. Estoril Praia Away −0.36
  6. FC Porto Home +0.47
  7. Gil Vicente Away +0.06

Last 5

+0.04 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 6 hardest of 18

  1. FC Alverca Away −0.10
  2. CF Estrela Amadora Home −0.13
  3. Santa Clara Away +0.22
  4. Sporting Home +0.55
  5. Estoril Praia Away −0.36

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Rio Ave shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. Rio Ave take 7.1 shots a match (league 12.2) at 0.06 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #18 in Liga Portugal for volume and #18 for quality. 40% of their shots come from inside the box (league 63%), and set pieces produce 37% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
7.1 shots per match
#18/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Benfica 19.1
=1 Vitória SC 19.1
#3 FC Porto 16.0
#4 Gil Vicente 14.0
#5 Sporting 13.4
=6 CF Estrela Amadora 13.1
=6 Santa Clara 13.1
#8 Estoril Praia 12.7
#9 Sporting Braga 12.5
#10 FC Alverca 11.9
#11 FC Arouca 10.9
#12 CD Nacional 10.7
#13 Marítimo 10.4
#14 Casa Pia 10.3
#15 Famalicão 9.6
#16 Académico Viseu FC 9.3
#17 Moreirense 7.3
#18 Rio Ave 7.1
League avg
12.2
Total
50 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.06 npxG per shot
#18/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Académico Viseu FC 0.15
#2 Sporting 0.14
#3 FC Porto 0.12
#4 Benfica 0.11
#5 FC Alverca 0.11
#6 FC Arouca 0.11
#7 CD Nacional 0.10
#8 Sporting Braga 0.10
#9 Santa Clara 0.10
#10 Famalicão 0.09
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 0.09
#12 Vitória SC 0.09
#13 Marítimo 0.08
#14 Moreirense 0.08
#15 Gil Vicente 0.07
#16 Casa Pia 0.07
#17 Estoril Praia 0.06
#18 Rio Ave 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
3.12 npxG from 50 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.9 shots per match
#17/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Vitória SC 7.1
#2 Benfica 7.6
#3 Santa Clara 8.1
#4 Sporting 8.6
#5 Sporting Braga 8.7
#6 Gil Vicente 9.8
#7 FC Porto 10.7
#8 CF Estrela Amadora 11.6
#9 Famalicão 12.0
#10 FC Alverca 12.1
#11 Marítimo 13.4
#12 Estoril Praia 13.9
#13 FC Arouca 14.9
#14 CD Nacional 15.1
=15 Casa Pia 15.7
=15 Moreirense 15.7
#17 Rio Ave 16.9
#18 Académico Viseu FC 17.6
League avg
12.2
Total
118 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#15/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Sporting Braga 0.06
#2 Santa Clara 0.07
#3 Gil Vicente 0.08
#4 Sporting 0.08
#5 FC Porto 0.08
#6 Académico Viseu FC 0.08
#7 Benfica 0.09
#8 Marítimo 0.09
#9 FC Arouca 0.09
#10 Famalicão 0.10
#11 Casa Pia 0.10
#12 Moreirense 0.10
#13 CD Nacional 0.10
#14 Estoril Praia 0.11
#15 Rio Ave 0.11
#16 Vitória SC 0.11
#17 CF Estrela Amadora 0.12
#18 FC Alverca 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
12.97 npxGA from 118 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

40% inside the box

League avg 63%

From 20 of 50 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

69% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 82 of 118 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

63% open play · 37% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.2 of 3.1 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

87% open play · 13% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.7 of 13.0 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Rio Ave home and away xG

Rio Ave per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 0.76 0.38
xGA / match 1.83 1.98
xGD / match -1.07 -1.61
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.57 0.37

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Rio Ave match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
0.54
xGA / match
1.92
xGD / match
-1.38
Points
4 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 FC Alverca A Weakest underlying xG 0.29 xGA 3.30 xGD -3.01
  2. Mon 14/09 CF Estrela Amadora H xG 1.23 P xGA 1.87 xGD -0.64
  3. Sun 06/09 Santa Clara A xG 0.32 xGA 1.80 xGD -1.48
  4. Fri 28/08 Sporting H xG 0.47 xGA 1.66 xGD -1.19
  5. Sat 22/08 Estoril Praia A Best underlying xG 0.70 xGA 1.16 xGD -0.46
  6. Sat 15/08 FC Porto H xG 0.58 xGA 1.97 xGD -1.39
  7. Sun 09/08 Gil Vicente A xG 0.19 xGA 1.66 P xGD -1.47

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.30. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Rio Ave in Liga Portugal

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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