Friday, 09/10/2026 at 19:45
5d 20h to kick-offMoreirense – Gil Vicente
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:23
What the model expects
- Moreirense
- 23%
- Draw
- 35%
- Gil Vicente
- 42%
| Moreirense | Draw | Gil Vicente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.35 | 2.83 | 2.40 |
- Total goals
- 1.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score
- 43%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
Moreirense
- Model
- 23.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.3%
- Probability gap
- −5.3 pp
- Edge
- −24.1%
- Fair odds
- 4.35
- Market odds
- 3.30 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.57
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.0%
-
Draw
- Model
- 35.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 29.2%
- Probability gap
- +6.1 pp
- Edge
- +13.1%
- Fair odds
- 2.83
- Market odds
- 3.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.97
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.0%
-
Gil Vicente
- Model
- 41.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 42.5%
- Probability gap
- −0.8 pp
- Edge
- −8.3%
- Fair odds
- 2.40
- Market odds
- 2.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.52
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.0%
Outcomes with value
Moreirense at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Moreirense not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Gil Vicente at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Moreirense at most 1 goal
Model 81.4% vs. bookmaker 72.3%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Moreirense at most 1 goal
What the model's reading is made of
- The model makes Moreirense at most 1 goal 81.4%. The market, with the bookmaker's margin taken out, makes it 72.3%. The gap between the two is 9.1%.
- The model's expected goals for Moreirense are their own fitted attack times the defence in front of them, and the fit rates that attack at 0.70 — below the competition's average of 1.00.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Moreirense | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -1.02 | +0.43 |
| Goals scored minus expected | +3.26 | -2.87 |
| Points won minus expected | +3.24 | -2.59 |
| npxG per shot | 0.08 | 0.07 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans Gil Vicente
42% Gil Vicente to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 15th
- Gil Vicente attack v Moreirense defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 18th
- Gil Vicente defence v Moreirense attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.43 vs -1.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.81 – 1.14
- Moreirense v Gil Vicente
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Moreirense | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.68 · 17th | (better) 1.31 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.73 · 14th | (better) 0.88 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -1.06 · 17th | (better) +0.43 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 0.68 · 17th | (better) 1.76 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.02 | (better) +0.43 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 46% of the model's distribution.
- Gil Vicente clean sheet
- 42%
- Gil Vicente 2+ goals
- 32%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score: no
- 57%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.5%
- 0:0
- 14.1%
- 0:1
- 14.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Moreirense sample
- 20 matches
- Gil Vicente sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Moreirense
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Gil Vicente
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.