Sporting Braga's recorded results for 2026/2027, newest first, with the available xG behind each score. Compare outcomes with the chances created and conceded, then open a match for more detail.
Showing 6 of 6 matching results
6 played this season
Results
- Wins – draws – losses (W–D–L)
- 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
11 pts 7–5 goals +2 GD
Chances
- Provider xG / xGA
- 7.50 – 3.88
- 1.25 – 0.65 per match
- xGD
- +3.62
- +0.60 per match
- xG record
- 4 with the chances, 1 with even chances, 1 against them
Comparable xG: 6 of 6 completed results.
Points vs xPts Model
11 pts 11.0 xPts
0.0 vs xPts
Matched xPts: 6 of 6 selected results.
Model · How xPts works →Match points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before deductions or sanctions.
Points vs xPts uses only matches with available xPts on both sides of the comparison.
What the results say
Season · All competitions · All venues
Sporting Braga's mixed record sits behind chances that argue for more. They out-created the opponent in 5 of 6 matches, for +3.62 xG difference overall on 7.50–3.88. Their points total of 11 lands on the model's 11.0 xPts, so the results have followed the chances closely.
Points minus xPts, match by match
Over these 6 results Sporting Braga are 0.02 points above their xPts. The gap was widest at +0.35, against FC Alverca on Sat 05/09.
- Points
- 11
- xPts
- 10.98
- Gap
- +0.02
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Points | xPts | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 09/08 | Moreirense | 1 | 2.48 | -1.48 | -1.48 |
| Mon 31/08 | Vitória SC | 3 | 1.95 | +1.05 | -0.43 |
| Sat 05/09 | FC Alverca | 3 | 2.22 | +0.78 | +0.35 |
| Thu 10/09 | CF Estrela Amadora | 0 | 1.34 | -1.34 | -0.99 |
| Mon 14/09 | Estoril Praia | 3 | 2.20 | +0.80 | -0.19 |
| Sun 20/09 | Santa Clara | 1 | 0.79 | +0.21 | +0.02 |
Scores and xG
Sporting Braga first
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Match analysis →
Why this label · Santa Clara, Sun 20/09
The match was drawn although the team recorded less xG. The outcome was stronger than that chance difference suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.79
- Points minus xPts
- +0.21
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · Estoril Praia, Mon 14/09
The team won and had a positive xG difference. The chances support the direction of the result, without making a judgment about fairness.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 2.21
- Points minus xPts
- +0.79
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · CF Estrela Amadora, Thu 10/09
The team lost, while the chance difference was approximately even. The outcome was weaker than that difference alone suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.33
- Points minus xPts
- -1.33
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · FC Alverca, Sat 05/09
The team won and had a positive xG difference. The chances support the direction of the result, without making a judgment about fairness.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 2.22
- Points minus xPts
- +0.78
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · Vitória SC, Mon 31/08
The team won and had a positive xG difference. The chances support the direction of the result, without making a judgment about fairness.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.96
- Points minus xPts
- +1.04
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · Moreirense, Sun 09/08
The match was drawn although the team recorded a positive xG difference. The outcome was weaker than that chance advantage suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 2.48
- Points minus xPts
- -1.48
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated →
Biggest underperformance
Moreirense 2:2
· Away xG / xGA 1.50 – 0.21
- Goal difference
- 0
- xGD
- +1.29
- GD minus xGD
- -1.29
Among 6 comparable results.
Open match →
Reading these results
xG is the provider's estimate of chances created; xGA is the opponent's xG. xGD is the difference. Labels compare the recorded outcome with those chances; they are interpretations, not judgments about fairness.
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
How each figure on this page is read
Every xG bar is drawn on one fixed scale: full width is 7.20 xG, the same on every card and in every window, so two cards can be compared by eye. A rarer match above that is capped with a hatched end, and the figure beside the bar still gives its value.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
Goal difference minus xGD says how far a scoreline finished from the chances behind it: a 4:2 won off level chances ran nearly two goals ahead of them. The two callouts under the list name the match that ran furthest each way, and a direction with no result a full goal clear of the chances gets no card rather than a card built from a rounding.
Windows count back from the most recent recorded match, and only matches attached to this club record are included. Home and away mean the provider-designated side, not a verified physical venue. Scores describe recorded play, not shootout advancement. Unverified periods receive no chance comparison.
1 non-result notice
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Not played / no final result
Gil Vicente