RC Lens – Angers prediction, 6 February 2027 · Ligue 1

Saturday, 06/02/2027

Match preview · Ligue 1

RC Lens 15th in Ligue 1 Home 2.07 projected goals

Angers 7th in Ligue 1 Away 1.06 projected goals

Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available

What the model expects

expected goals

2.07 1.06

RC Lens Angers

RC Lens: 60%
Draw: 24%
Angers: 16%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	RC Lens	Draw	Angers
Fair odds	1.66	4.20	6.33

Total goals: 3.13
Over 2.5 goals: 62%
Both teams to score: 62%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.

The model's case

Why the model leans RC Lens

60% RC Lens to win

Attack: 2nd vs 14th; RC Lens attack v Angers defence
Defence: 8th vs 16th; RC Lens defence v Angers attack
Recent xG form: +0.23 vs +0.02; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 2.07 – 1.06; RC Lens v Angers

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: RC Lens and Angers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	RC Lens	Angers
xG / match	(better) 2.27 · 2nd	1.61 · 9th
xGA / match	1.92 · 13th	(better) 1.41 · 7th
xGD / match	(better) +0.35 · 6th	+0.20 · 7th
xPts / match	(better) 1.49 · 6th	1.49 · 7th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.23	+0.02

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: RC Lens and Angers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	RC Lens	Angers
xG / match	(better) 2.27 · 2nd	1.61 · 9th
npxG / match	(better) 1.67	1.64
Shots / match	14.8 · joint 6th	(better) 15.0 · 5th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.11 · 6th	0.11 · 8th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: RC Lens and Angers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	RC Lens	Angers
xGA / match	1.92 · 13th	(better) 1.41 · 7th
Shots faced / match	(better) 11.2 · joint 3rd	16.4 · 16th
npxGA / shot	0.16 · 18th	(better) 0.08 · 2nd

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: RC Lens and Angers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	RC Lens	Angers
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 2.15	1.46
Last 6 xGA / match	1.92	(better) 1.44
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.23	+0.02

Ratings fitted over each club's last 20 matches, recent ones weighted more and adjusted for the opponent.

RC Lens attack → Angers defence

Edge RC Lens

RC Lens attack: 1.31 · 2nd
Angers defence: 1.07 · 14th

Angers attack → RC Lens defence

Evenly matched

Angers attack: 0.87 · 16th
RC Lens defence: 0.98 · 8th

The season aggregate places Angers 7th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 14th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Angers 9th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 16th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places RC Lens 13th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 8th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

One is the competition's average. An attack above it creates more than an average side does; a defence below it concedes less. Both are fitted over recent matches and adjusted for who the opponent was.

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.

RC Lens clean sheet: 32%
RC Lens 2+ goals: 63%
Under 2.5 goals: 38%
Both teams to score: no: 38%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 11.6%
2:1: 11.5%
2:0: 9.3%

Value calculator

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How value is calculated

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Match result

RC Lens to win

60.4% 1.66 —

Draw

23.8% 4.20 —

Angers to win

15.8% 6.33 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

85.5% 1.17 —

Under 1.5 goals

14.5% 6.90 —

Over 2.5 goals

62.4% 1.60 —

Under 2.5 goals

37.6% 2.66 —

Both teams to score

62.3% 1.61 —

Both teams not to score

37.7% 2.65 —

Team goals — RC Lens

RC Lens to score

89.3% 1.12 —

RC Lens not to score

10.7% 9.38 —

RC Lens 2+ goals

63.5% 1.58 —

RC Lens at most 1 goal

36.5% 2.74 —

Team goals — Angers

Angers to score

68.2% 1.47 —

Angers not to score

31.8% 3.15 —

Angers 2+ goals

28.6% 3.49 —

Angers at most 1 goal

71.4% 1.40 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
RC Lens sample: 20 matches
Angers sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · RC Lens: 2 matches
Away xG sample · Angers: 2 matches
Computed: Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RC Lens

2.15 xG created 1.92 xGA

W 1.54 created, 1.91 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 4.41 created, 1.84 conceded against Auxerre
L 2.91 created, 1.83 conceded against RC Strasbourg
L 1.24 created, 1.60 conceded against Lorient
D 1.62 created, 2.59 conceded against Le Mans
L 1.19 created, 1.75 conceded against AS Monaco

Angers

1.46 xG created 1.44 xGA

D 0.68 created, 1.57 conceded against Stade Brestois
L 1.99 created, 1.24 conceded against Lille
W 1.55 created, 1.81 conceded against Auxerre
L 1.66 created, 1.54 conceded against Stade Rennais
D 0.59 created, 1.31 conceded against Le Havre
W 2.26 created, 1.16 conceded against Troyes

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost