Angers – Olympique de Marseille prediction, 18 October 2026 · Ligue 1

Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 15:00

14d 14h to kick-off

Match preview · Ligue 1

Angers 7th in Ligue 1 Home 1.46 projected goals

Olympique de Marseille 17th in Ligue 1 Away 1.51 projected goals

Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available

What the model expects

expected goals

1.46 1.51

Angers Olympique de Marseille

Angers: 34%
Draw: 29%
Olympique de Marseille: 37%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Angers	Draw	Olympique de Marseille
Fair odds	2.91	3.48	2.71

Total goals: 2.97
Over 2.5 goals: 59%
Both teams to score: 65%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

Market odds are not available for this match yet.

The model's case

Why the model can't separate them

37% Olympique de Marseille to win

Attack: 3rd vs 14th; Olympique de Marseille attack v Angers defence
Defence: 17th vs 16th; Olympique de Marseille defence v Angers attack
Recent xG form: -0.52 vs +0.02; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 1.46 – 1.51; Angers v Olympique de Marseille

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Angers and Olympique de Marseille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Angers	Olympique de Marseille
xG / match	(better) 1.61 · 9th	1.56 · 10th
xGA / match	(better) 1.41 · 7th	2.28 · 18th
xGD / match	(better) +0.20 · 7th	-0.72 · 17th
xPts / match	(better) 1.49 · 7th	1.09 · 14th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.02	-0.53

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Angers and Olympique de Marseille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Angers	Olympique de Marseille
xG / match	(better) 1.61 · 9th	1.56 · 10th
npxG / match	(better) 1.64	1.31
Shots / match	(better) 15.0 · 5th	13.2 · joint 10th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.11 · 8th	0.10 · 12th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Angers and Olympique de Marseille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Angers	Olympique de Marseille
xGA / match	(better) 1.41 · 7th	2.28 · 18th
Shots faced / match	(better) 16.4 · 16th	17.0 · 17th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.08 · 2nd	0.12 · 14th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Angers and Olympique de Marseille compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Angers	Olympique de Marseille
Last 6 xG / match	1.46	(better) 1.79
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.44	2.32
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.02	-0.53

Ratings fitted over each club's last 20 matches, recent ones weighted more and adjusted for the opponent.

Angers attack → Olympique de Marseille defence

Evenly matched

Angers attack: 0.87 · 16th
Olympique de Marseille defence: 1.14 · 17th

Olympique de Marseille attack → Angers defence

Edge Olympique de Marseille

Olympique de Marseille attack: 1.13 · 3rd
Angers defence: 1.07 · 14th

The season aggregate places Angers 9th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 16th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Olympique de Marseille 10th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 3rd of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Angers 7th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 14th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

One is the competition's average. An attack above it creates more than an average side does; a defence below it concedes less. Both are fitted over recent matches and adjusted for who the opponent was.

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.

Olympique de Marseille clean sheet: 21%
Olympique de Marseille 2+ goals: 46%
Under 2.5 goals: 41%
Both teams to score: no: 35%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 13.8%
1:2: 9.8%
2:1: 9.4%

Value calculator

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How value is calculated

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Match result

Angers to win

34.3% 2.91 —

Draw

28.7% 3.48 —

Olympique de Marseille to win

37.0% 2.71 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

83.5% 1.20 —

Under 1.5 goals

16.5% 6.07 —

Over 2.5 goals

58.7% 1.70 —

Under 2.5 goals

41.3% 2.42 —

Both teams to score

65.5% 1.53 —

Both teams not to score

34.5% 2.90 —

Team goals — Angers

Angers to score

79.3% 1.26 —

Angers not to score

20.7% 4.83 —

Angers 2+ goals

44.0% 2.27 —

Angers at most 1 goal

56.0% 1.78 —

Team goals — Olympique de Marseille

Olympique de Marseille to score

80.6% 1.24 —

Olympique de Marseille not to score

19.4% 5.15 —

Olympique de Marseille 2+ goals

46.0% 2.18 —

Olympique de Marseille at most 1 goal

54.0% 1.85 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Angers sample: 20 matches
Olympique de Marseille sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Angers: 3 matches
Away xG sample · Olympique de Marseille: 2 matches
Computed: Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Angers

1.46 xG created 1.44 xGA

D 0.68 created, 1.57 conceded against Stade Brestois
L 1.99 created, 1.24 conceded against Lille
W 1.55 created, 1.81 conceded against Auxerre
L 1.66 created, 1.54 conceded against Stade Rennais
D 0.59 created, 1.31 conceded against Le Havre
W 2.26 created, 1.16 conceded against Troyes

Olympique de Marseille

1.79 xG created 2.32 xGA

W 2.92 created, 2.49 conceded against Stade Rennais
W 1.86 created, 0.18 conceded against RC Strasbourg
L 1.40 created, 1.72 conceded against AS Monaco
L 1.42 created, 3.29 conceded against Paris FC
L 1.34 created, 1.88 conceded against Stade Rennais
L 1.80 created, 4.33 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost