Olympique de Marseille 1:2 Paris Saint-Germain: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Olympique de Marseille Home 1.80 xG · 12 shots

Paris Saint-Germain Away 4.33 xG · 31 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Paris Saint-Germain were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Paris Saint-Germain's attack: 4.33 xG against 1.61 projected (+2.72). Olympique de Marseille produced 1.80 xG against 1.20 projected (+0.60).

Goals

66' Ferran Torres Paris Saint-Germain · 0.24 xG chance 0–1
72' Angel Gomes Olympique de Marseille · 0.38 xG chance 1–1
74' Marquinhos Paris Saint-Germain · 0.51 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Olympique de Marseille: 26%
Draw: 29%
Paris Saint-Germain: 45% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Olympique de Marseille 1.20 1.80 +0.60

Paris Saint-Germain 1.61 4.33 +2.72

Paris Saint-Germain produced 2.72 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Olympique de Marseille Paris Saint-Germain

Shots: 12; 31
On target: 4; 10
Inside the box: 7; 22
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.15
Open play xG: 1.55; 3.21
Set-piece xG: 0.30; 1.52
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.80 for Olympique de Marseille and 4.80 for Paris Saint-Germain.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

43 shots · 6.58 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Olympique de Marseille
Paris Saint-Germain
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Olympique de Marseille

1.69 xG created 1.78 xGA

W 1.21 created, 1.14 conceded against Le Havre
W 2.92 created, 2.49 conceded against Stade Rennais
W 1.86 created, 0.18 conceded against RC Strasbourg
L 1.40 created, 1.72 conceded against AS Monaco
L 1.42 created, 3.29 conceded against Paris FC
L 1.34 created, 1.88 conceded against Stade Rennais

Paris Saint-Germain

1.49 xG created 1.49 xGA

W 1.22 created, 2.87 conceded against RC Lens
L 0.61 created, 2.20 conceded against Paris FC
D 2.16 created, 0.87 conceded against Stade Rennais
D 1.44 created, 1.27 conceded against Lille
L 2.32 created, 0.51 conceded against AS Monaco
W 1.16 created, 1.24 conceded against Stade Brestois

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Olympique de Marseille: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Olympique de Marseille against Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Paris Saint-Germain not to score	11.00	+92.2%	Lost
Olympique de Marseille to win	7.00	+80.1%	Lost
Paris Saint-Germain at most 1 goal	3.40	+71.7%	Lost
Draw	5.25	+51.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.20	+44.2%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.50	+22.3%	Lost
Olympique de Marseille 2+ goals	3.25	+11.6%	Lost
Olympique de Marseille to score	1.44	+5.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympique de Marseille	25.7%	13.5%	+12.2 pp	3.89
Draw	28.8%	18.0%	+10.8 pp	3.47
Paris Saint-Germain	45.4%	68.5%	−23.1 pp	2.20

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympique de Marseille to score	72.8%	64.5%	+8.3 pp	1.37
Olympique de Marseille not to score	27.2%	35.5%	−8.3 pp	3.67
Paris Saint-Germain to score	82.5%	91.3%	−8.8 pp	1.21
Paris Saint-Germain not to score	17.5%	8.7%	+8.8 pp	5.72
Both teams to score	61.7%	58.9%	+2.8 pp	1.62
Both teams not to score	38.3%	41.1%	−2.8 pp	2.61
Olympique de Marseille 2+ goals	34.3%	29.1%	+5.2 pp	2.91
Olympique de Marseille at most 1 goal	65.7%	70.9%	−5.2 pp	1.52
Paris Saint-Germain 2+ goals	49.5%	72.3%	−22.8 pp	2.02
Paris Saint-Germain at most 1 goal	50.5%	27.7%	+22.8 pp	1.98
Over 1.5 goals	81.2%	85.4%	−4.2 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.8%	14.6%	+4.2 pp	5.32
Over 2.5 goals	55.0%	70.1%	−15.2 pp	1.82
Under 2.5 goals	45.0%	29.9%	+15.2 pp	2.22

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Olympique de Marseille sample: 20 matches
Paris Saint-Germain sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.