Paris Saint-Germain 1:2 AS Monaco: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Friday, 04/09/2026 at 21:05

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain Home 2.32 xG · 23 shots

AS Monaco Away 0.51 xG · 4 shots

12 The result went against the chances

Paris Saint-Germain were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. AS Monaco won 2–1. The biggest difference was Paris Saint-Germain's attack: 2.32 xG against 1.81 projected (+0.51). AS Monaco produced 0.51 xG against 0.91 projected (−0.40).

Goals

31' Marquinhos Paris Saint-Germain · 0.73 xG chance 1–0
58' Nazinho AS Monaco · 0.40 xG chance 1–1
72' Stanis Idumbo Muzambo AS Monaco · 0.05 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Paris Saint-Germain: 58%
Draw: 26%
AS Monaco: 16% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Paris Saint-Germain 1.81 2.32 +0.51

AS Monaco 0.91 0.51 -0.40

Paris Saint-Germain produced 0.51 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Paris Saint-Germain AS Monaco

Shots: 23; 4
On target: 10; 2
Inside the box: 8; 2
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.14
Open play xG: 1.05; 0.55
Set-piece xG: 1.15; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Paris Saint-Germain's shots add up to 2.20 xG and AS Monaco's to 0.55; the published figures are 2.32 and 0.51.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.75 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Paris Saint-Germain
AS Monaco
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Paris Saint-Germain

1.56 xG created 1.39 xGA

D 2.42 created, 0.96 conceded against Lorient
W 1.49 created, 0.17 conceded against Stade Brestois
W 1.22 created, 2.87 conceded against RC Lens
L 0.61 created, 2.20 conceded against Paris FC
D 2.16 created, 0.87 conceded against Stade Rennais
D 1.44 created, 1.27 conceded against Lille

AS Monaco

1.10 xG created 1.14 xGA

D 0.74 created, 1.75 conceded against Toulouse
W 1.25 created, 1.22 conceded against Metz
L 0.37 created, 0.39 conceded against Lille
L 1.13 created, 1.50 conceded against RC Strasbourg
W 1.39 created, 0.60 conceded against Le Havre
W 1.72 created, 1.40 conceded against Olympique de Marseille

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Paris Saint-Germain: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Paris Saint-Germain against AS Monaco before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	3.40	+60.7%	Lost
Draw	5.75	+51.3%	Lost
Paris Saint-Germain at most 1 goal	3.25	+42.7%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	7.00	+42.5%	Lost
Paris Saint-Germain not to score	10.00	+40.0%	Lost
AS Monaco to win	7.00	+9.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Paris Saint-Germain	58.1%	70.3%	−12.3 pp	1.72
Draw	26.3%	16.3%	+10.0 pp	3.80
AS Monaco	15.6%	13.4%	+2.2 pp	6.40

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Paris Saint-Germain to score	86.0%	90.4%	−4.4 pp	1.16
Paris Saint-Germain not to score	14.0%	9.6%	+4.4 pp	7.14
AS Monaco to score	62.9%	62.5%	+0.4 pp	1.59
AS Monaco not to score	37.1%	37.5%	−0.4 pp	2.69
Both teams to score	55.6%	55.7%	−0.1 pp	1.80
Both teams not to score	44.4%	44.3%	+0.1 pp	2.25
Paris Saint-Germain 2+ goals	56.1%	70.9%	−14.8 pp	1.78
Paris Saint-Germain at most 1 goal	43.9%	29.1%	+14.8 pp	2.28
AS Monaco 2+ goals	22.9%	26.9%	−4.0 pp	4.37
AS Monaco at most 1 goal	77.1%	73.1%	+4.0 pp	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	79.6%	86.4%	−6.8 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.4%	13.6%	+6.8 pp	4.91
Over 2.5 goals	52.7%	71.8%	−19.1 pp	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	47.3%	28.2%	+19.1 pp	2.12

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Paris Saint-Germain sample: 20 matches
AS Monaco sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.