Lille 2:2 Paris Saint-Germain: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Lille Home 1.27 xG · 9 shots

Paris Saint-Germain Away 1.44 xG · 18 shots

22 The chances were evenly matched

Paris Saint-Germain were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Lille's attack: 1.27 xG against 1.00 projected (+0.27).

Goals

21' Hakon Arnar Haraldsson Lille · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
84' Dilane Bakwa Lille · 0.03 xG chance 2–0
90' Marquinhos Paris Saint-Germain · 0.10 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
90' Vitinha Paris Saint-Germain · 0.05 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lille: 27%
Draw: 33% What happened
Paris Saint-Germain: 40%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lille 1.00 1.27 +0.27

Paris Saint-Germain 1.24 1.44 +0.20

Lille produced 0.27 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lille Paris Saint-Germain

Shots: 9; 18
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 6; 7
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.99; 1.05
Set-piece xG: 0.08; 0.27
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.09 for Lille and 1.29 for Paris Saint-Germain.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.39 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Lille
Paris Saint-Germain
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lille

1.19 xG created 0.72 xGA

D 0.54 created, 0.19 conceded against Nice
W 1.71 created, 1.06 conceded against Paris FC
D 1.55 created, 0.14 conceded against Le Havre
W 0.39 created, 0.37 conceded against AS Monaco
L 1.72 created, 0.54 conceded against Auxerre
W 1.24 created, 1.99 conceded against Angers

Paris Saint-Germain

1.78 xG created 1.30 xGA

W 2.78 created, 0.70 conceded against Angers
D 2.42 created, 0.96 conceded against Lorient
W 1.49 created, 0.17 conceded against Stade Brestois
W 1.22 created, 2.87 conceded against RC Lens
L 0.61 created, 2.20 conceded against Paris FC
D 2.16 created, 0.87 conceded against Stade Rennais

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Lille: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lille against Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Paris Saint-Germain not to score	6.00	+56.5%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.50	+36.4%	Lost
Paris Saint-Germain at most 1 goal	2.10	+34.9%	Lost
Lille to win	5.00	+34.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+34.0%	Lost
Draw	3.80	+26.6%	Won
Both teams not to score	2.10	+3.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lille	26.9%	19.0%	+7.8 pp	3.72
Draw	33.3%	25.0%	+8.3 pp	3.00
Paris Saint-Germain	39.8%	55.9%	−16.1 pp	2.51

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lille to score	65.8%	64.5%	+1.3 pp	1.52
Lille not to score	34.2%	35.5%	−1.3 pp	2.93
Paris Saint-Germain to score	73.9%	84.2%	−10.3 pp	1.35
Paris Saint-Germain not to score	26.1%	15.8%	+10.3 pp	3.84
Both teams to score	50.6%	55.7%	−5.1 pp	1.97
Both teams not to score	49.4%	44.3%	+5.1 pp	2.03
Lille 2+ goals	26.2%	29.1%	−2.9 pp	3.82
Lille at most 1 goal	73.8%	70.9%	+2.9 pp	1.35
Paris Saint-Germain 2+ goals	35.8%	55.7%	−20.0 pp	2.80
Paris Saint-Germain at most 1 goal	64.2%	44.3%	+20.0 pp	1.56
Over 1.5 goals	69.7%	78.9%	−9.3 pp	1.44
Under 1.5 goals	30.3%	21.1%	+9.3 pp	3.30
Over 2.5 goals	39.1%	56.9%	−17.8 pp	2.56
Under 2.5 goals	60.9%	43.1%	+17.8 pp	1.64

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lille sample: 20 matches
Paris Saint-Germain sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.