Stade Brestois 0:1 Paris Saint-Germain: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Stade Brestois Home 1.24 xG · 16 shots

Paris Saint-Germain Away 1.16 xG · 15 shots

01 The chances were evenly matched

Paris Saint-Germain were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Paris Saint-Germain's attack: 1.16 xG against 1.60 projected (−0.44).

Goals

5' Ferran Torres Paris Saint-Germain · 0.04 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Stade Brestois: 24%
Draw: 29%
Paris Saint-Germain: 47% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Stade Brestois 1.13 1.24 +0.11

Paris Saint-Germain 1.60 1.16 -0.44

Paris Saint-Germain produced 0.44 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Stade Brestois Paris Saint-Germain

Shots: 16; 15
On target: 5; 7
Inside the box: 8; 9
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.08
Open play xG: 1.08; 1.08
Set-piece xG: 0.14; 0.07
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.24 for Stade Brestois and 1.16 for Paris Saint-Germain.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 2.37 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Stade Brestois
Paris Saint-Germain
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Stade Brestois

2.16 xG created 1.34 xGA

L 0.17 created, 1.49 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
L 3.06 created, 2.02 conceded against RC Strasbourg
D 1.57 created, 0.68 conceded against Angers
D 2.72 created, 0.67 conceded against Le Mans
D 3.04 created, 1.14 conceded against Toulouse
W 2.37 created, 2.02 conceded against Le Havre

Paris Saint-Germain

1.54 xG created 1.32 xGA

W 1.49 created, 0.17 conceded against Stade Brestois
W 1.22 created, 2.87 conceded against RC Lens
L 0.61 created, 2.20 conceded against Paris FC
D 2.16 created, 0.87 conceded against Stade Rennais
D 1.44 created, 1.27 conceded against Lille
L 2.32 created, 0.51 conceded against AS Monaco

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Stade Brestois: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged3 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Stade Brestois against Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Stade Brestois to win	12.00	+190.5%	Lost
Paris Saint-Germain not to score	13.00	+131.4%	Lost
Paris Saint-Germain at most 1 goal	3.75	+91.5%	Won
Draw	6.50	+88.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.20	+51.3%	Won
Stade Brestois 2+ goals	4.50	+42.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.50	+32.1%	Won
Stade Brestois to score	1.67	+17.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+7.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Stade Brestois	24.2%	7.9%	+16.3 pp	4.13
Draw	29.0%	14.6%	+14.5 pp	3.44
Paris Saint-Germain	46.7%	77.5%	−30.8 pp	2.14

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Stade Brestois to score	70.5%	55.7%	+14.7 pp	1.42
Stade Brestois not to score	29.5%	44.3%	−14.7 pp	3.39
Paris Saint-Germain to score	82.2%	92.6%	−10.4 pp	1.22
Paris Saint-Germain not to score	17.8%	7.4%	+10.4 pp	5.62
Both teams to score	59.6%	52.0%	+7.6 pp	1.68
Both teams not to score	40.4%	48.0%	−7.6 pp	2.48
Stade Brestois 2+ goals	31.6%	20.8%	+10.8 pp	3.17
Stade Brestois at most 1 goal	68.4%	79.2%	−10.8 pp	1.46
Paris Saint-Germain 2+ goals	48.9%	75.0%	−26.1 pp	2.04
Paris Saint-Germain at most 1 goal	51.1%	25.0%	+26.1 pp	1.96
Over 1.5 goals	79.7%	85.4%	−5.7 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	20.3%	14.6%	+5.7 pp	4.92
Over 2.5 goals	52.7%	70.1%	−17.4 pp	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	47.3%	29.9%	+17.4 pp	2.12

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Stade Brestois sample: 20 matches
Paris Saint-Germain sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.