Le Havre 1:2 Stade Brestois: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Le Havre Home 2.02 xG · 18 shots

Stade Brestois Away 2.37 xG · 19 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Stade Brestois were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Stade Brestois's attack: 2.37 xG against 1.28 projected (+1.09). Le Havre produced 2.02 xG against 1.19 projected (+0.83).

Goals

12' Kamory Doumbia (pen.) Stade Brestois · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
51' Kamory Doumbia Stade Brestois · 0.60 xG chance 0–2
79' Rayan Fofana (pen.) Le Havre · 0.82 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Le Havre: 32%
Draw: 32%
Stade Brestois: 36% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Le Havre 1.19 2.02 +0.83

Stade Brestois 1.28 2.37 +1.09

Stade Brestois produced 1.09 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Le Havre Stade Brestois

Shots: 18; 19
On target: 4; 9
Inside the box: 13; 12
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.72; 1.53
Set-piece xG: 0.50; 0.08
Penalties: 1; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.23 for Le Havre and 1.59 for Stade Brestois.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 4.47 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Le Havre
Stade Brestois
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Le Havre

0.97 xG created 1.46 xGA

D 1.99 created, 1.58 conceded against Metz
D 0.14 created, 1.55 conceded against Lille
L 1.14 created, 1.21 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
W 1.25 created, 1.30 conceded against Lorient
L 0.60 created, 1.39 conceded against AS Monaco
D 0.69 created, 1.75 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais

Stade Brestois

1.89 xG created 1.31 xGA

L 0.79 created, 1.86 conceded against Paris FC
L 0.17 created, 1.49 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
L 3.06 created, 2.02 conceded against RC Strasbourg
D 1.57 created, 0.68 conceded against Angers
D 2.72 created, 0.67 conceded against Le Mans
D 3.04 created, 1.14 conceded against Toulouse

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Le Havre: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Le Havre against Stade Brestois before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.30	+5.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Le Havre	31.8%	35.0%	−3.2 pp	3.14
Draw	31.9%	28.6%	+3.2 pp	3.14
Stade Brestois	36.3%	36.4%	−0.0 pp	2.75

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.0%	53.3%	+2.7 pp	1.79
Both teams not to score	44.0%	46.7%	−2.7 pp	2.27
Over 1.5 goals	74.8%	72.9%	+1.9 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.2%	27.1%	−1.9 pp	3.97
Over 2.5 goals	45.6%	47.4%	−1.7 pp	2.19
Under 2.5 goals	54.4%	52.6%	+1.7 pp	1.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Le Havre sample: 20 matches
Stade Brestois sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.