Le Havre 0:0 Angers: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Le Havre Home 1.31 xG · 16 shots

Angers Away 0.59 xG · 9 shots

00 Le Havre had the better chances, but it finished level

Le Havre were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Angers's attack: 0.59 xG against 1.15 projected (−0.56).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Le Havre: 40%
Draw: 31% What happened
Angers: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Le Havre 1.39 1.31 -0.08

Angers 1.15 0.59 -0.56

Angers produced 0.56 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Le Havre Angers

Shots: 16; 9
On target: 6; 1
Inside the box: 9; 5
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.16; 0.41
Set-piece xG: 0.12; 0.14
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.27 for Le Havre and 0.56 for Angers.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 1.83 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Le Havre
Angers
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Le Havre

0.97 xG created 1.60 xGA

D 0.14 created, 1.55 conceded against Lille
L 1.14 created, 1.21 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
W 1.25 created, 1.30 conceded against Lorient
L 0.60 created, 1.39 conceded against AS Monaco
D 0.69 created, 1.75 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
L 2.02 created, 2.37 conceded against Stade Brestois

Angers

1.45 xG created 1.70 xGA

L 2.20 created, 2.03 conceded against Auxerre
D 0.59 created, 2.02 conceded against RC Strasbourg
D 0.68 created, 1.57 conceded against Stade Brestois
L 1.99 created, 1.24 conceded against Lille
W 1.55 created, 1.81 conceded against Auxerre
L 1.66 created, 1.54 conceded against Stade Rennais

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Le Havre: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Le Havre against Angers before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Le Havre to win	2.60	+5.3%	Lost
Draw	3.30	+2.8%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Le Havre	40.5%	36.4%	+4.1 pp	2.47
Draw	31.2%	28.6%	+2.5 pp	3.21
Angers	28.3%	35.0%	−6.7 pp	3.53

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.1%	54.7%	+2.4 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	42.9%	45.3%	−2.4 pp	2.33
Over 1.5 goals	76.2%	74.5%	+1.7 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.8%	25.5%	−1.7 pp	4.20
Over 2.5 goals	47.5%	50.0%	−2.5 pp	2.10
Under 2.5 goals	52.5%	50.0%	+2.5 pp	1.91

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Le Havre sample: 20 matches
Angers sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.