AS Monaco 2:1 RC Lens: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

AS Monaco Home 1.75 xG · 10 shots

RC Lens Away 1.19 xG · 12 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

RC Lens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. AS Monaco won 2–1. The biggest difference was AS Monaco's attack: 1.75 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.40). RC Lens produced 1.19 xG against 1.46 projected (−0.27).

Goals

32' Paris Brunner AS Monaco · 0.49 xG chance 1–0
57' Matthieu Udol RC Lens · 0.21 xG chance 1–1
84' Jonathan Gradit (o.g.) AS Monaco · 0.10 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AS Monaco: 33% What happened
Draw: 30%
RC Lens: 38%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AS Monaco 1.35 1.75 +0.40

RC Lens 1.46 1.19 -0.27

AS Monaco produced 0.40 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AS Monaco RC Lens

Shots: 10; 12
On target: 7; 4
Inside the box: 6; 10
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.62; 0.73
Set-piece xG: 0.11; 0.32
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.68 for AS Monaco and 1.04 for RC Lens.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 2.78 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AS Monaco
RC Lens
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AS Monaco

1.03 xG created 1.20 xGA

L 0.37 created, 0.39 conceded against Lille
L 1.13 created, 1.50 conceded against RC Strasbourg
W 1.39 created, 0.60 conceded against Le Havre
W 1.72 created, 1.40 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
W 0.51 created, 2.32 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
D 1.05 created, 1.02 conceded against RC Strasbourg

RC Lens

2.43 xG created 1.83 xGA

L 2.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
W 1.54 created, 1.91 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 4.41 created, 1.84 conceded against Auxerre
L 2.91 created, 1.83 conceded against RC Strasbourg
L 1.24 created, 1.60 conceded against Lorient
D 1.62 created, 2.59 conceded against Le Mans

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AS Monaco: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged0 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AS Monaco against RC Lens before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
AS Monaco not to score	6.00	+39.6%	Lost
AS Monaco at most 1 goal	2.10	+26.2%	Lost
RC Lens to win	3.30	+24.8%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+9.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	+7.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AS Monaco	32.5%	45.4%	−12.8 pp	3.07
Draw	29.7%	25.8%	+3.9 pp	3.37
RC Lens	37.8%	28.9%	+8.9 pp	2.64

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AS Monaco to score	76.7%	84.2%	−7.5 pp	1.30
AS Monaco not to score	23.3%	15.8%	+7.5 pp	4.30
RC Lens to score	79.3%	75.0%	+4.3 pp	1.26
RC Lens not to score	20.7%	25.0%	−4.3 pp	4.82
Both teams to score	62.5%	64.5%	−2.0 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.5%	35.5%	+2.0 pp	2.67
AS Monaco 2+ goals	39.9%	55.7%	−15.8 pp	2.51
AS Monaco at most 1 goal	60.1%	44.3%	+15.8 pp	1.66
RC Lens 2+ goals	43.9%	41.1%	+2.8 pp	2.28
RC Lens at most 1 goal	56.1%	58.9%	−2.8 pp	1.78
Over 1.5 goals	81.0%	81.1%	−0.1 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	19.0%	18.9%	+0.1 pp	5.27
Over 2.5 goals	54.6%	60.2%	−5.6 pp	1.83
Under 2.5 goals	45.4%	39.8%	+5.6 pp	2.20

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AS Monaco sample: 20 matches
RC Lens sample: 20 matches
Computed: 46 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.