RC Strasbourg 2:1 RC Lens: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:15

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

RC Strasbourg Home 1.83 xG · 16 shots

RC Lens Away 2.91 xG · 17 shots

21 The result went against the chances

RC Lens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. RC Strasbourg won 2–1. The biggest difference was RC Lens's attack: 2.91 xG against 1.76 projected (+1.15). RC Strasbourg produced 1.83 xG against 1.08 projected (+0.75).

Goals

38' Florian Thauvin (pen.) RC Lens · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
48' Gessime Yassine RC Strasbourg · 0.11 xG chance 1–1
85' Gessime Yassine RC Strasbourg · 0.23 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

RC Strasbourg: 20% What happened
Draw: 27%
RC Lens: 52%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

RC Strasbourg 1.08 1.83 +0.75

RC Lens 1.76 2.91 +1.15

RC Lens produced 1.15 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

RC Strasbourg RC Lens

Shots: 16; 17
On target: 7; 7
Inside the box: 12; 12
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.17
Open play xG: 1.32; 1.99
Set-piece xG: 0.36; 0.15
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.66 for RC Strasbourg and 2.10 for RC Lens.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 4.64 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

RC Strasbourg
RC Lens
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RC Strasbourg

1.24 xG created 1.71 xGA

W 1.34 created, 2.28 conceded against Lorient
L 0.41 created, 1.36 conceded against Toulouse
D 2.02 created, 0.59 conceded against Angers
W 2.02 created, 3.06 conceded against Stade Brestois
W 1.50 created, 1.13 conceded against AS Monaco
L 0.18 created, 1.86 conceded against Olympique de Marseille

RC Lens

2.32 xG created 1.26 xGA

D 2.76 created, 0.25 conceded against Stade Brestois
D 1.53 created, 1.07 conceded against Nice
W 0.82 created, 1.25 conceded against Nantes
L 2.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
W 1.54 created, 1.91 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 4.41 created, 1.84 conceded against Auxerre

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

RC Strasbourg: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged0 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on RC Strasbourg against RC Lens before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.30	+2.2%	Lost
RC Strasbourg at most 1 goal	1.44	+2.0%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+1.1%	Lost
RC Strasbourg not to score	3.25	+1.1%	Lost
RC Lens to win	1.91	+0.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RC Strasbourg	20.2%	24.4%	−4.2 pp	4.96
Draw	27.3%	25.7%	+1.6 pp	3.66
RC Lens	52.5%	49.9%	+2.6 pp	1.90

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RC Strasbourg to score	68.9%	70.9%	−2.0 pp	1.45
RC Strasbourg not to score	31.1%	29.1%	+2.0 pp	3.21
RC Lens to score	85.2%	82.8%	+2.4 pp	1.17
RC Lens not to score	14.8%	17.2%	−2.4 pp	6.73
Both teams to score	60.2%	58.9%	+1.3 pp	1.66
Both teams not to score	39.8%	41.1%	−1.3 pp	2.51
RC Strasbourg 2+ goals	29.4%	35.5%	−6.1 pp	3.41
RC Strasbourg at most 1 goal	70.6%	64.5%	+6.1 pp	1.42
RC Lens 2+ goals	54.5%	51.5%	+3.0 pp	1.84
RC Lens at most 1 goal	45.5%	48.5%	−3.0 pp	2.20
Over 1.5 goals	81.5%	78.9%	+2.6 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.5%	21.1%	−2.6 pp	5.42
Over 2.5 goals	55.6%	58.7%	−3.2 pp	1.80
Under 2.5 goals	44.4%	41.3%	+3.2 pp	2.25

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
RC Strasbourg sample: 20 matches
RC Lens sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.