Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 17:15
Full timeRC Strasbourg 1:1 AS Monaco
RC Strasbourg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was RC Strasbourg's attack: 1.02 xG against 1.41 projected (−0.39).
Goals
- 52' Sadibou Sané (o.g.) RC Strasbourg · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
- 71' Paris Brunner AS Monaco · 0.02 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- RC Strasbourg
- 38%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- AS Monaco
- 32%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
RC Strasbourg produced 0.39 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 12
- On target
- 3
- 3
- Inside the box
- 6
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.82
- 0.56
- Set-piece xG
- 0.17
- 0.22
- Penalties
- —
- —
RC Strasbourg's shots add up to 0.99 xG and AS Monaco's to 0.78; the published figures are 1.02 and 1.05.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 1.77 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- RC Strasbourg
- AS Monaco
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.75 xG created 2.08 xGA
1.06 xG created 1.24 xGA
- W 1.25 created, 1.22 conceded against Metz
- L 0.37 created, 0.39 conceded against Lille
- L 1.13 created, 1.50 conceded against RC Strasbourg
- W 1.39 created, 0.60 conceded against Le Havre
- W 1.72 created, 1.40 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
- W 0.51 created, 2.32 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Monaco not to score | 5.50 | +35.9% | Lost |
| AS Monaco at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +30.4% | Won |
| RC Strasbourg to win | 3.10 | +17.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | +13.6% | Won |
| Draw | 3.75 | +13.6% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +2.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg | 37.8% | 30.6% | +7.2 pp | 2.65 |
| Draw | 30.3% | 25.3% | +5.0 pp | 3.30 |
| AS Monaco | 32.0% | 44.1% | −12.2 pp | 3.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg to score | 78.4% | 75.0% | +3.4 pp | 1.28 |
| RC Strasbourg not to score | 21.6% | 25.0% | −3.4 pp | 4.63 |
| AS Monaco to score | 75.3% | 82.8% | −7.5 pp | 1.33 |
| AS Monaco not to score | 24.7% | 17.2% | +7.5 pp | 4.05 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 62.5% | −1.7 pp | 1.65 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.2% | 37.5% | +1.7 pp | 2.55 |
| RC Strasbourg 2+ goals | 42.3% | 41.1% | +1.2 pp | 2.36 |
| RC Strasbourg at most 1 goal | 57.7% | 58.9% | −1.2 pp | 1.73 |
| AS Monaco 2+ goals | 37.9% | 55.7% | −17.8 pp | 2.64 |
| AS Monaco at most 1 goal | 62.1% | 44.3% | +17.8 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | 81.1% | −1.6 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.6% | 18.9% | +1.6 pp | 4.86 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 60.2% | −8.0 pp | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 39.8% | +8.0 pp | 2.09 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- RC Strasbourg sample
- 20 matches
- AS Monaco sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.