Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeTroyes 2:6 RC Strasbourg
Troyes were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. RC Strasbourg won 6–2. The biggest difference was RC Strasbourg's attack: 2.95 xG against 1.16 projected (+1.79). Troyes produced 2.94 xG against 1.36 projected (+1.58).
Goals
- 9' Antoine Mille Troyes · 0.16 xG chance 1–0
- 40' Jacobo Ortega RC Strasbourg · 0.54 xG chance 1–1
- 42' Diogo Sousa RC Strasbourg · 0.31 xG chance 1–2
- 57' Giovanni Reyna RC Strasbourg · 0.11 xG chance 1–3
- 85' Samuel Amo-Ameyaw RC Strasbourg · 0.07 xG chance 1–4
- 88' Samuel Amo-Ameyaw RC Strasbourg · 0.15 xG chance 1–5
- 90' Jérémy Le Douaron Troyes · 0.85 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
- 90' Conrad Harder RC Strasbourg · 0.11 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
The model against the result
- Troyes
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- RC Strasbourg
- 29% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
RC Strasbourg produced 1.79 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 27
- 19
- On target
- 6
- 12
- Inside the box
- 18
- 16
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.17
- Open play xG
- 2.09
- 3.21
- Set-piece xG
- 0.72
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.81 for Troyes and 3.25 for RC Strasbourg.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
46 shots · 6.02 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Troyes
- RC Strasbourg
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.27 xG created 1.48 xGA
1.33 xG created 1.82 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes to win | 2.88 | +13.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +6.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +5.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes | 39.4% | 32.9% | +6.6 pp | 2.54 |
| Draw | 31.4% | 27.8% | +3.6 pp | 3.19 |
| RC Strasbourg | 29.2% | 39.4% | −10.1 pp | 3.42 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 55.7% | +1.1 pp | 1.76 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.1% | 44.3% | −1.1 pp | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | 76.2% | −0.3 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 23.8% | +0.3 pp | 4.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 52.6% | −5.5 pp | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 47.4% | +5.5 pp | 1.89 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Troyes sample
- 2 matches
- RC Strasbourg sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 48 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 48 minutes before kick-off
Warnings
- Troyes has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.