Le Mans 2:2 RC Lens: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 17:15

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Le Mans Home 2.59 xG · 12 shots

RC Lens Away 1.62 xG · 16 shots

22 Le Mans had the better chances, but it finished level

RC Lens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Le Mans's attack: 2.59 xG against 1.24 projected (+1.35).

Goals

32' Adil Bourabaa Le Mans · 1.00 xG chance 1–0
44' Lucas Calodat Le Mans · 0.37 xG chance 2–0
45' Abdallah Sima RC Lens · 0.21 xG chance 2–1
51' Franjo Ivanović RC Lens · 0.31 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Le Mans: 24%
Draw: 27% What happened
RC Lens: 49%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Le Mans 1.24 2.59 +1.35

RC Lens 1.79 1.62 -0.17

Le Mans produced 1.35 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Le Mans RC Lens

Shots: 12; 16
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 11; 12
xG per shot: 0.25; 0.08
Open play xG: 2.91; 0.93
Set-piece xG: 0.12; 0.32
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.01 for Le Mans and 1.24 for RC Lens.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 4.28 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Le Mans
RC Lens
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Le Mans

1.67 xG created 2.32 xGA

D 0.67 created, 2.72 conceded against Stade Brestois
L 3.06 created, 3.12 conceded against Stade Rennais
D 1.28 created, 1.12 conceded against Nice

RC Lens

2.30 xG created 1.61 xGA

W 0.82 created, 1.25 conceded against Nantes
L 2.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
W 1.54 created, 1.91 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 4.41 created, 1.84 conceded against Auxerre
L 2.91 created, 1.83 conceded against RC Strasbourg
L 1.24 created, 1.60 conceded against Lorient

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Le Mans against RC Lens before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.33	+17.6%	Won
Le Mans 2+ goals	3.25	+16.2%	Won
Le Mans to win	4.75	+12.8%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+8.0%	Won
Le Mans to score	1.44	+6.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Le Mans	23.7%	20.1%	+3.6 pp	4.21
Draw	27.1%	22.0%	+5.1 pp	3.68
RC Lens	49.1%	57.9%	−8.7 pp	2.04

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Le Mans to score	73.9%	64.5%	+9.4 pp	1.35
Le Mans not to score	26.1%	35.5%	−9.4 pp	3.84
RC Lens to score	85.6%	84.2%	+1.4 pp	1.17
RC Lens not to score	14.4%	15.8%	−1.4 pp	6.93
Both teams to score	64.8%	55.7%	+9.0 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	35.2%	44.3%	−9.0 pp	2.84
Le Mans 2+ goals	35.8%	29.1%	+6.7 pp	2.80
Le Mans at most 1 goal	64.2%	70.9%	−6.7 pp	1.56
RC Lens 2+ goals	55.3%	57.7%	−2.4 pp	1.81
RC Lens at most 1 goal	44.7%	42.3%	+2.4 pp	2.23
Over 1.5 goals	84.3%	81.1%	+3.3 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.7%	18.9%	−3.3 pp	6.38
Over 2.5 goals	60.1%	60.2%	−0.1 pp	1.66
Under 2.5 goals	39.9%	39.8%	+0.1 pp	2.51

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Le Mans sample: 3 matches
RC Lens sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Le Mans has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.