Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Troyes – Toulouse
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Troyes
- 35%
- Draw
- 27%
- Toulouse
- 38%
| Troyes | Draw | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.88 | 3.70 | 2.62 |
- Total goals
- 3.26
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model can't separate them
38% Toulouse to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 18th
- Toulouse attack v Troyes defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 7th
- Toulouse defence v Troyes attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.39 vs -0.56
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.60 – 1.67
- Troyes v Toulouse
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Troyes | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.40 · 12th | (better) 2.19 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.96 · joint 14th | (better) 1.64 · 9th |
| xGD / match | -0.56 · 14th | (better) +0.55 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 0.96 · 16th | (better) 1.74 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.56 | (better) +0.39 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- Toulouse clean sheet
- 18%
- Toulouse 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.1%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Troyes sample
- 5 matches
- Toulouse sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Troyes
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Toulouse
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Troyes has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.