Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeToulouse 3:2 Le Havre
Toulouse were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Le Havre's attack: 2.34 xG against 1.08 projected (+1.26).
Goals
- 49' Casper Tengstedt (pen.) Toulouse · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
- 51' Casper Tengstedt Toulouse · 0.07 xG chance 2–0
- 71' Josh Maja Le Havre · 0.51 xG chance 2–1
- 79' Thomas Jørgensen Toulouse · 0.10 xG chance 3–1
- 88' Ally Samatta Le Havre · 0.68 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- Toulouse
- 53% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Le Havre
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Le Havre produced 1.26 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 18
- On target
- 5
- 7
- Inside the box
- 10
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 1.11
- 2.28
- Set-piece xG
- 0.04
- 0.17
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.13 for Toulouse and 2.52 for Le Havre.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 4.42 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Toulouse
- Le Havre
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.92 xG created 1.31 xGA
- W 1.36 created, 0.41 conceded against RC Strasbourg
- W 1.13 created, 1.54 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
- L 2.77 created, 0.70 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
- D 1.14 created, 3.04 conceded against Stade Brestois
- L 3.46 created, 1.21 conceded against Lille
- D 1.63 created, 0.93 conceded against Lorient
1.17 xG created 1.43 xGA
- L 1.14 created, 1.21 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
- W 1.25 created, 1.30 conceded against Lorient
- L 0.60 created, 1.39 conceded against AS Monaco
- D 0.69 created, 1.75 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
- L 2.02 created, 2.37 conceded against Stade Brestois
- D 1.31 created, 0.59 conceded against Angers
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.90 | +5.1% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +1.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 53.4% | 55.7% | −2.4 pp | 1.87 |
| Draw | 27.0% | 24.3% | +2.7 pp | 3.71 |
| Le Havre | 19.7% | 20.0% | −0.3 pp | 5.09 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse to score | 85.7% | 84.2% | +1.5 pp | 1.17 |
| Toulouse not to score | 14.3% | 15.8% | −1.5 pp | 7.01 |
| Le Havre to score | 68.9% | 64.5% | +4.4 pp | 1.45 |
| Le Havre not to score | 31.1% | 35.5% | −4.4 pp | 3.21 |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | 55.7% | +4.9 pp | 1.65 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.4% | 44.3% | −4.9 pp | 2.54 |
| Toulouse 2+ goals | 55.6% | 55.7% | −0.2 pp | 1.80 |
| Toulouse at most 1 goal | 44.4% | 44.3% | +0.2 pp | 2.25 |
| Le Havre 2+ goals | 29.4% | 29.1% | +0.3 pp | 3.41 |
| Le Havre at most 1 goal | 70.6% | 70.9% | −0.3 pp | 1.42 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | 78.9% | +3.1 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.9% | 21.1% | −3.1 pp | 5.58 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 56.9% | −0.4 pp | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 43.1% | +0.4 pp | 2.30 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Toulouse sample
- 20 matches
- Le Havre sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 12 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.