Thursday, 03/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeToulouse 0:1 Lille
Lille were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Toulouse's attack: 3.46 xG against 1.12 projected (+2.34).
Goals
- 73' Ayase Ueda Lille · 0.57 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Toulouse
- 32%
- Draw
- 33%
- Lille
- 35% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Toulouse produced 2.34 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 24
- 10
- On target
- 10
- 6
- Inside the box
- 14
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 3.25
- 1.20
- Set-piece xG
- 0.40
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.56 for Toulouse and 1.16 for Lille.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
34 shots · 4.85 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Toulouse
- Lille
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.43 xG created 1.70 xGA
- L 0.41 created, 3.76 conceded against RC Lens
- D 1.75 created, 0.74 conceded against AS Monaco
- W 1.36 created, 0.41 conceded against RC Strasbourg
- W 1.13 created, 1.54 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
- L 2.77 created, 0.70 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
- D 1.14 created, 3.04 conceded against Stade Brestois
1.31 xG created 0.92 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse to win | 3.80 | +19.9% | Lost |
| Lille not to score | 4.33 | +19.3% | Lost |
| Lille at most 1 goal | 1.80 | +18.9% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +16.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | +12.1% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.75 | +6.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 31.6% | 25.1% | +6.5 pp | 3.17 |
| Draw | 33.2% | 27.2% | +5.9 pp | 3.02 |
| Lille | 35.3% | 47.7% | −12.4 pp | 2.83 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse to score | 70.4% | 66.3% | +4.2 pp | 1.42 |
| Toulouse not to score | 29.6% | 33.7% | −4.2 pp | 3.38 |
| Lille to score | 72.5% | 78.3% | −5.8 pp | 1.38 |
| Lille not to score | 27.5% | 21.7% | +5.8 pp | 3.63 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 52.0% | +1.0 pp | 1.89 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.0% | 48.0% | −1.0 pp | 2.13 |
| Toulouse 2+ goals | 31.1% | 31.3% | −0.2 pp | 3.22 |
| Toulouse at most 1 goal | 68.9% | 68.7% | +0.2 pp | 1.45 |
| Lille 2+ goals | 33.9% | 48.5% | −14.6 pp | 2.95 |
| Lille at most 1 goal | 66.1% | 51.5% | +14.6 pp | 1.51 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | 74.5% | −2.9 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 25.5% | +2.9 pp | 3.52 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 50.0% | −8.7 pp | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 50.0% | +8.7 pp | 1.70 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Toulouse sample
- 20 matches
- Lille sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.