Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 20:45
28d 19h to kick-offOlympique de Marseille – Toulouse
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Olympique de Marseille
- 41%
- Draw
- 26%
- Toulouse
- 32%
| Olympique de Marseille | Draw | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.43 | 3.78 | 3.08 |
- Total goals
- 3.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Olympique de Marseille
41% Olympique de Marseille to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 12th
- Olympique de Marseille attack v Toulouse defence
- Defence
- 17th vs 4th
- Olympique de Marseille defence v Toulouse attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.52 vs +0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.77 – 1.58
- Olympique de Marseille v Toulouse
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Olympique de Marseille | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.56 · 10th | (better) 2.19 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 2.28 · 18th | (better) 1.64 · 9th |
| xGD / match | -0.72 · 17th | (better) +0.55 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 14th | (better) 1.74 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.53 | (better) +0.39 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Olympique de Marseille clean sheet
- 18%
- Olympique de Marseille 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.6%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Olympique de Marseille sample
- 20 matches
- Toulouse sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Olympique de Marseille
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Toulouse
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.