Debreceni VSC 2:2 MTK Budapest: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:00

Full time

Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Debreceni VSC Home 1.44 xG

MTK Budapest Away 1.79 xG

22 MTK Budapest had the better chances, but it finished level

Debreceni VSC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Debreceni VSC's attack: 1.44 xG against 2.06 projected (−0.62). MTK Budapest produced 1.79 xG against 1.46 projected (+0.33).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Debreceni VSC: 51%
Draw: 25% What happened
MTK Budapest: 25%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Debreceni VSC 2.06 1.44 -0.62

MTK Budapest 1.46 1.79 +0.33

Debreceni VSC produced 0.62 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Debreceni VSC MTK Budapest

Shots: 21; 15
On target: 7; 7
Inside the box: 13; 8
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Debreceni VSC

2.09 xG created 1.47 xGA

W 1.55 created, 0.68 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
D 1.05 created, 0.99 conceded against ETO FC Győr
L 0.98 created, 2.56 conceded against Paksi FC
W 2.57 created, 1.07 conceded against Újpest
L 2.24 created, 2.09 conceded against Újpest
D 4.16 created, 1.43 conceded against ETO FC Győr

MTK Budapest

2.00 xG created 1.89 xGA

D 1.60 created, 0.76 conceded against Kazincbarcikai SC
D 1.83 created, 1.81 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
D 2.98 created, 2.09 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 1.70 created, 3.63 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
D 2.49 created, 0.97 conceded against Újpest
W 1.40 created, 2.09 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Debreceni VSC: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Debreceni VSC against MTK Budapest before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	+10.8%	Won
Debreceni VSC to win	2.15	+9.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.50	+8.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+4.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Debreceni VSC	50.8%	41.3%	+9.5 pp	1.97
Draw	24.5%	26.9%	−2.4 pp	4.08
MTK Budapest	24.6%	31.7%	−7.1 pp	4.06

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	72.0%	62.5%	+9.5 pp	1.39
Both teams not to score	28.0%	37.5%	−9.5 pp	3.57
Over 1.5 goals	89.8%	81.1%	+8.7 pp	1.11
Under 1.5 goals	10.2%	18.9%	−8.7 pp	9.82
Over 2.5 goals	70.5%	59.9%	+10.6 pp	1.42
Under 2.5 goals	29.5%	40.1%	−10.6 pp	3.39

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Debreceni VSC sample: 20 matches
MTK Budapest sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.