Debreceni VSC 2:4 Vasas: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 19:30

Full time

Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Debreceni VSC Home 1.42 xG

Vasas Away 2.36 xG

24 The scoreline reflected the chances

Debreceni VSC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. Vasas won 4–2. The biggest difference was Debreceni VSC's attack: 1.42 xG against 2.22 projected (−0.80). Vasas produced 2.36 xG against 1.83 projected (+0.53).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Debreceni VSC: 46%
Draw: 23%
Vasas: 30% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Debreceni VSC 2.22 1.42 -0.80

Vasas 1.83 2.36 +0.53

Debreceni VSC produced 0.80 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Debreceni VSC Vasas

Shots: 11; 15
On target: 6; 6
Inside the box: 8; 9
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.16

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Debreceni VSC

2.40 xG created 1.99 xGA

L 0.98 created, 2.56 conceded against Paksi FC
W 2.57 created, 1.07 conceded against Újpest
L 2.24 created, 2.09 conceded against Újpest
D 4.16 created, 1.43 conceded against ETO FC Győr
D 1.44 created, 1.79 conceded against MTK Budapest
W 2.99 created, 2.97 conceded against Paksi FC

Vasas

2.17 xG created 1.86 xGA

W 2.36 created, 0.42 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
W 3.28 created, 1.80 conceded against Budapest Honvéd FC
L 1.49 created, 2.58 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 1.56 created, 2.64 conceded against Újpest

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged7 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Debreceni VSC against Vasas before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Debreceni VSC 2+ goals	1.83	+23.3%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	+21.3%	Won
Both teams to score	1.50	+18.9%	Won
Vasas 2+ goals	2.00	+12.9%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+9.3%	Won
Debreceni VSC to score	1.18	+7.4%	Won
Debreceni VSC to win	2.30	+6.6%	Lost
Vasas to score	1.22	+5.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Debreceni VSC	46.4%	40.4%	+5.9 pp	2.16
Draw	23.2%	25.1%	−1.9 pp	4.31
Vasas	30.5%	34.4%	−4.0 pp	3.28

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Debreceni VSC to score	90.9%	79.2%	+11.7 pp	1.10
Debreceni VSC not to score	9.1%	20.8%	−11.7 pp	10.99
Vasas to score	86.2%	76.6%	+9.6 pp	1.16
Vasas not to score	13.8%	23.4%	−9.6 pp	7.24
Both teams to score	79.3%	62.5%	+16.8 pp	1.26
Both teams not to score	20.7%	37.5%	−16.8 pp	4.82
Debreceni VSC 2+ goals	67.2%	50.0%	+17.2 pp	1.49
Debreceni VSC at most 1 goal	32.8%	50.0%	−17.2 pp	3.05
Vasas 2+ goals	56.5%	46.3%	+10.1 pp	1.77
Vasas at most 1 goal	43.5%	53.7%	−10.1 pp	2.30
Over 1.5 goals	93.7%	81.1%	+12.6 pp	1.07
Under 1.5 goals	6.3%	18.9%	−12.6 pp	15.84
Over 2.5 goals	79.1%	61.0%	+18.1 pp	1.26
Under 2.5 goals	20.9%	39.0%	−18.1 pp	4.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Debreceni VSC sample: 20 matches
Vasas sample: 4 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Vasas has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.