ETO FC Győr 3:2 Budapest Honvéd FC: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · NB I (Hungary)

ETO FC Győr Home

Budapest Honvéd FC Away

ETO FC Győr were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 3–2.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

ETO FC Győr: 48% What happened
Draw: 25%
Budapest Honvéd FC: 27%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

ETO FC Győr

1.93 xG created 1.81 xGA

D 0.99 created, 1.05 conceded against Debreceni VSC
W 2.95 created, 0.42 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
W 2.19 created, 1.38 conceded against Kisvárda FC
W 2.37 created, 1.87 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
D 1.43 created, 4.16 conceded against Debreceni VSC
D 1.68 created, 2.00 conceded against Kisvárda FC

Budapest Honvéd FC

1.41 xG created 1.94 xGA

L 1.80 created, 3.28 conceded against Vasas
W 1.02 created, 0.61 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on ETO FC Győr against Budapest Honvéd FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	+13.3%	Won
Both teams to score	1.53	+13.2%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+5.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
ETO FC Győr	48.1%	46.3%	+1.8 pp	2.08
Draw	24.7%	26.0%	−1.3 pp	4.05
Budapest Honvéd FC	27.2%	27.6%	−0.4 pp	3.68

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	73.8%	60.8%	+13.1 pp	1.35
Both teams not to score	26.2%	39.2%	−13.1 pp	3.82
Over 1.5 goals	90.6%	81.1%	+9.5 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	9.4%	18.9%	−9.5 pp	10.66
Over 2.5 goals	72.1%	59.9%	+12.2 pp	1.39
Under 2.5 goals	27.9%	40.1%	−12.2 pp	3.59

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
ETO FC Győr sample: 20 matches
Budapest Honvéd FC sample: 2 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Budapest Honvéd FC has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.