Thursday, 03/09/2026 at 19:30
Full timeETO FC Győr 0:3 Ferencváros TC
Ferencváros TC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 3–0.
The model against the result
- ETO FC Győr
- 28%
- Draw
- 27%
- Ferencváros TC
- 45% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.93 xG created 1.81 xGA
- D 0.99 created, 1.05 conceded against Debreceni VSC
- W 2.95 created, 0.42 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
- W 2.19 created, 1.38 conceded against Kisvárda FC
- W 2.37 created, 1.87 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- D 1.43 created, 4.16 conceded against Debreceni VSC
- D 1.68 created, 2.00 conceded against Kisvárda FC
1.88 xG created 1.07 xGA
- L 1.73 created, 1.93 conceded against ETO FC Győr
- W 2.35 created, 0.78 conceded against Paksi FC
- W 1.44 created, 0.69 conceded against Újpest
- W 1.70 created, 0.93 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
- W 2.11 created, 1.36 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
- W 1.95 created, 0.73 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETO FC Győr to win | 4.10 | +14.7% | Lost |
| ETO FC Győr 2+ goals | 2.63 | +12.3% | Lost |
| ETO FC Győr to score | 1.33 | +4.9% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | +3.4% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +1.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETO FC Győr | 28.0% | 22.8% | +5.2 pp | 3.58 |
| Draw | 26.8% | 25.3% | +1.5 pp | 3.73 |
| Ferencváros TC | 45.2% | 51.9% | −6.7 pp | 2.21 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETO FC Győr to score | 78.7% | 70.9% | +7.8 pp | 1.27 |
| ETO FC Győr not to score | 21.3% | 29.1% | −7.8 pp | 4.70 |
| Ferencváros TC to score | 85.8% | 85.4% | +0.4 pp | 1.16 |
| Ferencváros TC not to score | 14.2% | 14.6% | −0.4 pp | 7.06 |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 62.5% | +6.5 pp | 1.45 |
| Both teams not to score | 31.0% | 37.5% | −6.5 pp | 3.22 |
| ETO FC Győr 2+ goals | 42.8% | 35.5% | +7.3 pp | 2.34 |
| ETO FC Győr at most 1 goal | 57.2% | 64.5% | −7.3 pp | 1.75 |
| Ferencváros TC 2+ goals | 55.8% | 57.7% | −1.9 pp | 1.79 |
| Ferencváros TC at most 1 goal | 44.2% | 42.3% | +1.9 pp | 2.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | 81.1% | +5.8 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.1% | 18.9% | −5.8 pp | 7.63 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | 61.0% | +3.6 pp | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.4% | 39.0% | −3.6 pp | 2.83 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- ETO FC Győr sample
- 20 matches
- Ferencváros TC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.