AS Trenčín 0:4 FC Spartak Trnava: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

AS Trenčín Home 1.44 xG

FC Spartak Trnava Away 1.82 xG

04 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Spartak Trnava were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 4–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AS Trenčín: 23%
Draw: 25%
FC Spartak Trnava: 52% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AS Trenčín 1.33 1.44 +0.11

FC Spartak Trnava 1.97 1.82 -0.15

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AS Trenčín FC Spartak Trnava

Shots: 13; 14
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 9; 11
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AS Trenčín

1.56 xG created 1.83 xGA

W 2.38 created, 0.99 conceded against 1. FC Tatran Prešov
L 1.01 created, 1.17 conceded against KFC Komárno
L 1.99 created, 2.05 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
W 1.57 created, 2.04 conceded against FC Košice
D 0.61 created, 2.59 conceded against KFC Komárno
L 1.80 created, 2.16 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová

FC Spartak Trnava

2.37 xG created 0.92 xGA

W 1.83 created, 0.60 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
W 2.62 created, 1.10 conceded against MŠK Žilina
L 1.31 created, 1.43 conceded against DAC 1904
W 1.92 created, 1.59 conceded against KFC Komárno
W 3.82 created, 0.56 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
W 2.73 created, 0.26 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AS Trenčín: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AS Trenčín against FC Spartak Trnava before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+10.6%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.65	+9.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+5.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AS Trenčín	23.0%	22.4%	+0.7 pp	4.34
Draw	25.4%	25.4%	−0.0 pp	3.94
FC Spartak Trnava	51.6%	52.2%	−0.6 pp	1.94

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.5%	57.7%	+10.8 pp	1.46
Both teams not to score	31.5%	42.3%	−10.8 pp	3.17
Over 1.5 goals	87.6%	78.3%	+9.3 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.4%	21.7%	−9.3 pp	8.05
Over 2.5 goals	66.0%	57.1%	+8.9 pp	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	34.0%	42.9%	−8.9 pp	2.94

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AS Trenčín sample: 20 matches
FC Spartak Trnava sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.