AS Trenčín 2:1 MFK Ružomberok: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

AS Trenčín Home 2.78 xG

MFK Ružomberok Away 1.87 xG

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

AS Trenčín were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was AS Trenčín's attack: 2.78 xG against 1.68 projected (+1.10). MFK Ružomberok produced 1.87 xG against 1.47 projected (+0.40).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AS Trenčín: 41% What happened
Draw: 28%
MFK Ružomberok: 31%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AS Trenčín 1.68 2.78 +1.10

MFK Ružomberok 1.47 1.87 +0.40

AS Trenčín produced 1.10 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AS Trenčín MFK Ružomberok

Shots: 13; 13
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 11; 7
xG per shot: 0.21; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AS Trenčín

1.40 xG created 1.97 xGA

L 1.01 created, 1.17 conceded against KFC Komárno
L 1.99 created, 2.05 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
W 1.57 created, 2.04 conceded against FC Košice
D 0.61 created, 2.59 conceded against KFC Komárno
L 1.80 created, 2.16 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
L 1.44 created, 1.82 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava

MFK Ružomberok

1.58 xG created 1.51 xGA

W 2.05 created, 1.99 conceded against AS Trenčín
L 0.42 created, 0.67 conceded against MFK Skalica
D 2.41 created, 1.21 conceded against DAC 1904
L 1.55 created, 1.95 conceded against MFK Skalica
L 1.11 created, 2.52 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
L 1.95 created, 0.74 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AS Trenčín: 1 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AS Trenčín against MFK Ružomberok before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.80	+4.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+4.5%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	+1.6%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+0.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AS Trenčín	41.3%	41.7%	−0.5 pp	2.42
Draw	27.5%	24.7%	+2.8 pp	3.63
MFK Ružomberok	31.2%	33.5%	−2.3 pp	3.20

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.2%	60.8%	+7.4 pp	1.47
Both teams not to score	31.8%	39.2%	−7.4 pp	3.14
Over 1.5 goals	86.0%	79.4%	+6.5 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	14.0%	20.6%	−6.5 pp	7.12
Over 2.5 goals	62.9%	58.2%	+4.7 pp	1.59
Under 2.5 goals	37.1%	41.8%	−4.7 pp	2.70

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AS Trenčín sample: 20 matches
MFK Ružomberok sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.