Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFK Železiarne Podbrezová 2:2 FC Košice
FK Železiarne Podbrezová were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was FC Košice's attack: 2.51 xG against 1.50 projected (+1.01). FK Železiarne Podbrezová produced 2.44 xG against 2.14 projected (+0.30).
The model against the result
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- 52%
- Draw
- 24% What happened
- FC Košice
- 24%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Košice produced 1.01 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 13
- On target
- 7
- 8
- Inside the box
- 7
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.19
Recent form
1.16 xG created 1.88 xGA
- L 0.60 created, 1.83 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- L 1.10 created, 1.95 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- W 1.63 created, 0.30 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 0.98 created, 3.14 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- W 2.16 created, 1.80 conceded against AS Trenčín
- L 0.49 created, 2.23 conceded against DAC 1904
1.69 xG created 2.57 xGA
- W 2.80 created, 2.34 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- L 1.29 created, 2.13 conceded against MFK Skalica
- W 2.16 created, 2.30 conceded against KFC Komárno
- L 2.04 created, 1.57 conceded against AS Trenčín
- W 0.93 created, 2.43 conceded against MFK Skalica
- L 0.92 created, 4.66 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged7 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | +6.1% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | +4.9% | Won |
| FC Košice to score | 1.29 | +3.2% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | +2.2% | Won |
| FC Košice 2+ goals | 2.25 | +2.2% | Won |
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová 2+ goals | 1.53 | +0.2% | Won |
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová to score | 1.11 | +0.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová | 51.7% | 50.6% | +1.0 pp | 1.94 |
| Draw | 24.0% | 24.0% | −0.1 pp | 4.17 |
| FC Košice | 24.4% | 25.3% | −1.0 pp | 4.10 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová to score | 90.2% | 84.4% | +5.8 pp | 1.11 |
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová not to score | 9.8% | 15.6% | −5.8 pp | 10.18 |
| FC Košice to score | 80.2% | 73.1% | +7.1 pp | 1.25 |
| FC Košice not to score | 19.8% | 26.9% | −7.1 pp | 5.06 |
| Both teams to score | 73.5% | 64.5% | +8.9 pp | 1.36 |
| Both teams not to score | 26.5% | 35.5% | −8.9 pp | 3.77 |
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová 2+ goals | 65.4% | 60.8% | +4.6 pp | 1.53 |
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová at most 1 goal | 34.6% | 39.2% | −4.6 pp | 2.89 |
| FC Košice 2+ goals | 45.4% | 41.1% | +4.3 pp | 2.20 |
| FC Košice at most 1 goal | 54.6% | 58.9% | −4.3 pp | 1.83 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.9% | 83.0% | +7.8 pp | 1.10 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.1% | 17.0% | −7.8 pp | 10.93 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.7% | 64.5% | +8.1 pp | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.3% | 35.5% | −8.1 pp | 3.66 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová sample
- 20 matches
- FC Košice sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.