Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00
Full timeMFK Skalica 1:6 DAC 1904
DAC 1904 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 6–1.
The model against the result
- MFK Skalica
- 25%
- Draw
- 27%
- DAC 1904
- 49% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.38 xG created 1.45 xGA
- W 2.13 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Košice
- L 0.04 created, 1.24 conceded against 1. FC Tatran Prešov
- W 0.67 created, 0.42 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 1.95 created, 1.55 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 1.08 created, 3.25 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 2.43 created, 0.93 conceded against FC Košice
1.68 xG created 1.31 xGA
- L 0.92 created, 1.11 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- L 1.61 created, 1.32 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- W 1.43 created, 1.31 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- D 1.21 created, 2.41 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 2.68 created, 1.21 conceded against KFC Komárno
- W 2.23 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | +16.6% | Won |
| MFK Skalica to win | 4.56 | +3.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFK Skalica | 24.6% | 20.7% | +3.9 pp | 4.06 |
| Draw | 26.7% | 24.9% | +1.7 pp | 3.75 |
| DAC 1904 | 48.7% | 54.3% | −5.7 pp | 2.05 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% | 52.5% | +9.9 pp | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.6% | 47.5% | −9.9 pp | 2.66 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Skalica sample
- 20 matches
- DAC 1904 sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.