Botev Plovdiv 1:3 Levski Sofia: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Botev Plovdiv Home 1.72 xG

Levski Sofia Away 0.66 xG

13 The result went against the chances

Levski Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Botev Plovdiv's attack: 1.72 xG against 1.04 projected (+0.68). Levski Sofia produced 0.66 xG against 1.33 projected (−0.67).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Botev Plovdiv: 26%
Draw: 32%
Levski Sofia: 41% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Botev Plovdiv 1.04 1.72 +0.68

Levski Sofia 1.33 0.66 -0.67

Botev Plovdiv produced 0.68 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Botev Plovdiv Levski Sofia

Shots: 12; 8
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 7; 5
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.08

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Botev Plovdiv

1.87 xG created 1.10 xGA

W 2.68 created, 1.15 conceded against Cherno More Varna
D 2.29 created, 0.53 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
L 2.39 created, 1.54 conceded against CSKA Sofia
W 2.29 created, 0.25 conceded against Cherno More Varna
L 0.81 created, 2.58 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.77 created, 0.54 conceded against Botev Vratsa

Levski Sofia

2.29 xG created 0.45 xGA

W 1.59 created, 0.27 conceded against CSKA Sofia
W 2.59 created, 1.13 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
W 2.43 created, 0.53 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
W 2.38 created, 0.12 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
W 1.02 created, 0.64 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
W 3.70 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Spartak Varna

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Botev Plovdiv: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Botev Plovdiv against Levski Sofia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Botev Plovdiv to win	5.00	+25.2%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+15.9%	Lost
Levski Sofia at most 1 goal	1.83	+11.5%	Lost
Levski Sofia not to score	5.00	+7.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+5.8%	Lost
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals	4.00	+4.1%	Lost
Botev Plovdiv to score	1.57	+3.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Botev Plovdiv	26.4%	18.9%	+7.5 pp	3.79
Draw	32.2%	25.5%	+6.7 pp	3.11
Levski Sofia	41.4%	55.6%	−14.1 pp	2.41

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Botev Plovdiv to score	67.4%	58.9%	+8.5 pp	1.48
Botev Plovdiv not to score	32.6%	41.1%	−8.5 pp	3.07
Levski Sofia to score	76.2%	81.1%	−4.9 pp	1.31
Levski Sofia not to score	23.8%	18.9%	+4.9 pp	4.20
Both teams to score	53.3%	50.0%	+3.3 pp	1.88
Both teams not to score	46.7%	50.0%	−3.3 pp	2.14
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals	27.8%	23.4%	+4.4 pp	3.60
Botev Plovdiv at most 1 goal	72.2%	76.6%	−4.4 pp	1.38
Levski Sofia 2+ goals	39.2%	50.0%	−10.8 pp	2.55
Levski Sofia at most 1 goal	60.8%	50.0%	+10.8 pp	1.64
Over 1.5 goals	72.6%	73.1%	−0.5 pp	1.38
Under 1.5 goals	27.4%	26.9%	+0.5 pp	3.66
Over 2.5 goals	42.8%	48.7%	−5.9 pp	2.34
Under 2.5 goals	57.2%	51.3%	+5.9 pp	1.75

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Botev Plovdiv sample: 20 matches
Levski Sofia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.