Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:15
Full timeLevski Sofia 6:0 FK Spartak Varna
Levski Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 73%. They won 6–0. The biggest difference was Levski Sofia's attack: 3.70 xG against 2.13 projected (+1.57). FK Spartak Varna produced 0.00 xG against 0.61 projected (−0.61).
The model against the result
- Levski Sofia
- 73% What happened
- Draw
- 20%
- FK Spartak Varna
- 7%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Levski Sofia produced 1.57 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 1
- On target
- 11
- 0
- Inside the box
- 14
- 0
- xG per shot
- 0.18
- 0.00
Recent form
1.76 xG created 0.78 xGA
- D 0.57 created, 1.96 conceded against Ludogorets
- W 1.59 created, 0.27 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- W 2.59 created, 1.13 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- W 2.43 created, 0.53 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- W 2.38 created, 0.12 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- W 1.02 created, 0.64 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.39 xG created 1.36 xGA
- W 3.68 created, 0.27 conceded against PFK Montana 1921
- D 0.79 created, 2.80 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- W 1.60 created, 1.94 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- W 0.44 created, 0.80 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L 1.07 created, 1.30 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- L 0.73 created, 1.04 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 5.75 | +14.9% | Lost |
| Levski Sofia at most 1 goal | 3.00 | +4.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +3.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | +0.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 73.2% | 75.7% | −2.5 pp | 1.37 |
| Draw | 20.0% | 16.4% | +3.5 pp | 5.00 |
| FK Spartak Varna | 6.8% | 7.9% | −1.1 pp | 14.68 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia to score | 90.1% | 89.4% | +0.7 pp | 1.11 |
| Levski Sofia not to score | 9.9% | 10.6% | −0.7 pp | 10.06 |
| FK Spartak Varna to score | 48.5% | 46.3% | +2.1 pp | 2.06 |
| FK Spartak Varna not to score | 51.5% | 53.7% | −2.1 pp | 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 41.1% | +3.8 pp | 2.23 |
| Both teams not to score | 55.1% | 58.9% | −3.8 pp | 1.81 |
| Levski Sofia 2+ goals | 65.1% | 68.7% | −3.6 pp | 1.54 |
| Levski Sofia at most 1 goal | 34.9% | 31.3% | +3.6 pp | 2.87 |
| FK Spartak Varna 2+ goals | 11.3% | 13.6% | −2.3 pp | 8.84 |
| FK Spartak Varna at most 1 goal | 88.7% | 86.4% | +2.3 pp | 1.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | 78.3% | +1.2 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.5% | 21.7% | −1.2 pp | 4.89 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 57.1% | −4.1 pp | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 42.9% | +4.1 pp | 2.13 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Levski Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- FK Spartak Varna sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.