FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2:0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:15

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Home 0.80 xG

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Away 0.88 xG

20 The chances were evenly matched

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FC CSKA 1948 Sofia's attack: 0.80 xG against 1.21 projected (−0.41).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia: 39% What happened
Draw: 34%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.21 0.80 -0.41

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.98 0.88 -0.10

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia produced 0.41 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Shots: 8; 4
On target: 2; 1
Inside the box: 4; 3
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.22

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia

1.89 xG created 1.06 xGA

W 3.06 created, 0.46 conceded against Ludogorets
D 2.80 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
W 0.89 created, 1.16 conceded against Botev Vratsa
W 1.05 created, 1.84 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
W 2.54 created, 1.64 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
L 1.03 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.99 xG created 1.17 xGA

W 0.75 created, 0.96 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
L 1.32 created, 0.53 conceded against Cherno More Varna
L 0.50 created, 3.10 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
L 1.91 created, 0.96 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.80 created, 0.44 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
L 0.64 created, 1.02 conceded against Levski Sofia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC CSKA 1948 Sofia against Lokomotiv Plovdiv before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win	6.25	+68.8%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+31.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.80	+12.0%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.40	+7.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia	39.3%	60.5%	−21.1 pp	2.54
Draw	33.7%	24.4%	+9.3 pp	2.97
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	27.0%	15.2%	+11.8 pp	3.70

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	49.6%	46.3%	+3.2 pp	2.02
Both teams not to score	50.4%	53.7%	−3.2 pp	1.98
Over 1.5 goals	68.5%	72.3%	−3.8 pp	1.46
Under 1.5 goals	31.5%	27.7%	+3.8 pp	3.18
Over 2.5 goals	37.8%	47.4%	−9.6 pp	2.65
Under 2.5 goals	62.2%	52.6%	+9.6 pp	1.61

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia sample: 20 matches
Lokomotiv Plovdiv sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.