Friday, 28/08/2026 at 18:00
Full timeSlavia Sofia 1:1 FK Septemvri Sofia
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 35%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Slavia Sofia's attack: 0.46 xG against 1.03 projected (−0.57).
The model against the result
- Slavia Sofia
- 31%
- Draw
- 35% What happened
- FK Septemvri Sofia
- 34%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Slavia Sofia produced 0.57 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 5
- 11
- On target
- 2
- 4
- Inside the box
- 3
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.09
Recent form
0.59 xG created 1.45 xGA
- L 0.30 created, 1.98 conceded against FK Dobrudzha Dobrich
- L 1.16 created, 0.79 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- D 0.37 created, 1.53 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- L 0.00 created, 2.57 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- D 0.60 created, 0.91 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- W 1.09 created, 0.93 conceded against Botev Vratsa
0.97 xG created 1.05 xGA
- W 1.65 created, 0.99 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 1.15 created, 0.52 conceded against Beroe Stara Zagora
- D 1.39 created, 0.66 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- L 0.12 created, 2.38 conceded against Levski Sofia
- W 1.04 created, 0.73 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 0.49 created, 1.03 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Septemvri Sofia to win | 3.70 | +27.4% | Lost |
| Slavia Sofia not to score | 3.75 | +23.8% | Lost |
| Slavia Sofia at most 1 goal | 1.62 | +17.3% | Won |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals | 3.75 | +12.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.10 | +7.5% | Won |
| FK Septemvri Sofia to score | 1.53 | +6.3% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.50 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 30.9% | 44.5% | −13.7 pp | 3.24 |
| Draw | 34.7% | 30.2% | +4.5 pp | 2.88 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia | 34.4% | 25.3% | +9.2 pp | 2.90 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia to score | 67.0% | 75.0% | −8.0 pp | 1.49 |
| Slavia Sofia not to score | 33.0% | 25.0% | +8.0 pp | 3.03 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia to score | 69.4% | 60.8% | +8.6 pp | 1.44 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia not to score | 30.6% | 39.2% | −8.6 pp | 3.26 |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 48.5% | −0.0 pp | 2.06 |
| Both teams not to score | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp | 1.94 |
| Slavia Sofia 2+ goals | 27.3% | 42.3% | −15.0 pp | 3.66 |
| Slavia Sofia at most 1 goal | 72.7% | 57.7% | +15.0 pp | 1.38 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals | 29.9% | 25.0% | +4.9 pp | 3.35 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia at most 1 goal | 70.1% | 75.0% | −4.9 pp | 1.43 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | 62.5% | +4.2 pp | 1.50 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 37.5% | −4.2 pp | 3.01 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.6% | 37.5% | −1.9 pp | 2.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64.4% | 62.5% | +1.9 pp | 1.55 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Slavia Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- FK Septemvri Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.