Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:45
Full timeBohemian FC 3:0 Sligo Rovers
Bohemian FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 72%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Bohemian FC's attack: 1.48 xG against 2.51 projected (−1.03). Sligo Rovers produced 0.15 xG against 0.94 projected (−0.79).
The model against the result
- Bohemian FC
- 72% What happened
- Draw
- 18%
- Sligo Rovers
- 10%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Bohemian FC produced 1.03 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 2
- On target
- 10
- 0
- Inside the box
- 13
- 1
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.08
Recent form
1.79 xG created 1.18 xGA
- W 1.25 created, 0.38 conceded against Shelbourne
- W 2.14 created, 1.14 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- W 1.78 created, 2.28 conceded against Drogheda United
- D 2.23 created, 0.24 conceded against Galway United
- L 1.04 created, 1.66 conceded against Waterford FC
- W 2.32 created, 1.39 conceded against Derry City
1.12 xG created 1.66 xGA
- L 1.12 created, 1.62 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
- L 1.67 created, 2.28 conceded against Galway United
- D 1.69 created, 1.03 conceded against Drogheda United
- D 1.35 created, 1.74 conceded against Dundalk FC
- L 0.23 created, 1.68 conceded against Derry City
- D 0.66 created, 1.59 conceded against Waterford FC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers 2+ goals | 5.50 | +32.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +18.8% | Lost |
| Sligo Rovers to score | 1.83 | +17.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 6.00 | +10.6% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | +3.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemian FC | 72.1% | 75.4% | −3.4 pp | 1.39 |
| Draw | 18.4% | 15.4% | +3.1 pp | 5.43 |
| Sligo Rovers | 9.5% | 9.2% | +0.3 pp | 10.51 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemian FC to score | 93.4% | 90.4% | +3.0 pp | 1.07 |
| Bohemian FC not to score | 6.6% | 9.6% | −3.0 pp | 15.15 |
| Sligo Rovers to score | 64.1% | 50.0% | +14.1 pp | 1.56 |
| Sligo Rovers not to score | 35.9% | 50.0% | −14.1 pp | 2.79 |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 48.0% | +12.9 pp | 1.64 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.1% | 52.0% | −12.9 pp | 2.56 |
| Bohemian FC 2+ goals | 73.9% | 70.9% | +3.0 pp | 1.35 |
| Bohemian FC at most 1 goal | 26.1% | 29.1% | −3.0 pp | 3.84 |
| Sligo Rovers 2+ goals | 24.0% | 17.2% | +6.8 pp | 4.16 |
| Sligo Rovers at most 1 goal | 76.0% | 82.8% | −6.8 pp | 1.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.0% | 83.2% | +5.8 pp | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.0% | 16.8% | −5.8 pp | 9.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.3% | 61.5% | +7.8 pp | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.7% | 38.5% | −7.8 pp | 3.26 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bohemian FC sample
- 20 matches
- Sligo Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.