xgEdge

Expected goals

Bray Wanderers expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Premier Division (Ireland) · after 3 matches · updated 4 Oct

Bray Wanderers's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier Division (Ireland) 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Bray Wanderers xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.00 xG per match
#10/12
Attack (xG per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Bohemian FC 1.38
#2 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.31
#3 Shelbourne 1.29
#4 Galway United 1.28
#5 Derry City 1.25
#6 Shamrock Rovers 1.25
#7 Sligo Rovers 1.19
#8 Treaty United FC 1.13
#9 Waterford FC 1.04
#10 Bray Wanderers 1.00
#11 Drogheda United 0.95
#12 Cork City 0.87
League avg
1.18
Total
3.00 3 matches
Defence
1.19 xGA per match
#7/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Treaty United FC 0.79
#2 Shamrock Rovers 0.82
#3 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.90
#4 Shelbourne 0.95
#5 Bohemian FC 1.00
#6 Derry City 1.04
#7 Bray Wanderers 1.19
#8 Drogheda United 1.26
#9 Galway United 1.30
#10 Cork City 1.41
#11 Sligo Rovers 1.49
#12 Waterford FC 1.64
League avg
1.18
Total
3.57 3 matches
xG difference
-0.19 xGD per match
#8/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Shamrock Rovers +0.42
#2 St. Patrick's Athletic +0.40
#3 Bohemian FC +0.38
#4 Shelbourne +0.34
#5 Treaty United FC +0.34
#6 Derry City +0.21
#7 Galway United -0.01
#8 Bray Wanderers -0.19
#9 Drogheda United -0.30
#10 Sligo Rovers -0.31
#11 Cork City -0.54
#12 Waterford FC -0.60
League avg
0.00
Total
-0.57 3 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.16 xPts per match
#9/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Treaty United FC 1.67
#2 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.66
#3 Shamrock Rovers 1.66
#4 Shelbourne 1.62
#5 Bohemian FC 1.61
#6 Derry City 1.47
#7 Galway United 1.34
#8 Sligo Rovers 1.20
#9 Bray Wanderers 1.16
#10 Drogheda United 1.15
#11 Cork City 0.98
#12 Waterford FC 0.97
League avg
1.37
Total
3.47 vs 9 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 3 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

Expected goals here are summed over 3 of 4 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

Bray Wanderers's underlying numbers sit close to the Premier Division (Ireland) average. They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.19 per match, from about average shot volume at low chance quality. After only 3 matches, treat every figure here as provisional.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
5 3.00 +2.00 Too early to read
Goals conceded vs xGA
2 3.57 -1.57 Too early to read
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
9 3.47 +5.53 Too early to read

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Bray Wanderers are 2.00 goals above their xG after 3 matches.

Goals
5
xG
3.00
Gap
+2.00
Fri 24/10 Tue 28/10 Sun 02/11 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.83 +1.89 +2.00 +0.83 +1.06 +0.11 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Bray Wanderers: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 24/10 University College Dublin 1 0.17 +0.83 +0.83
Tue 28/10 University College Dublin 3 1.94 +1.06 +1.89
Sun 02/11 Treaty United FC 1 0.89 +0.11 +2.00

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Bray Wanderers xG trend

Current form -0.19 npxGD per match

All 3 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 1 of 3 matches. The worst was against University College Dublin on Fri 24/10 (-1.25).

npxG · last 3
1.00
npxGA · last 3
1.19
-2 -1 0 +1 -1.25 Fri 24/10 +0.90 Tue 28/10 -0.22 Sun 02/11 -0.19 season avg
Bray Wanderers: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 24/10 University College Dublin 0.17 1.42 -1.25 -1.25
Tue 28/10 University College Dublin 1.94 1.04 +0.90 -0.18
Sun 02/11 Treaty United FC 0.89 1.11 -0.22 -0.19

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.00 npxG and 1.19 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
−0.08 xG vs league average
Over 4 league matches
Not ranked: a club needs 27 matches against rated opponents, and Bray Wanderers have 4.
Last 4
−0.08 xG vs league average
Over 4 league matches
Not ranked: only 4 league matches played, and Last 5 ranks full runs of 5.
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.08 xG vs league average · over 4 matches

  1. Waterford FC Home −0.24
  2. Treaty United FC Home +0.03
  3. University College Dublin Home −0.05
  4. University College Dublin Away −0.05

Last 4

−0.08 xG vs league average · over 4 matches

  1. Waterford FC Home −0.24
  2. Treaty United FC Home +0.03
  3. University College Dublin Home −0.05
  4. University College Dublin Away −0.05

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Bray Wanderers shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. Bray Wanderers take 12.7 shots a match (league 13.1) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #6 in Premier Division (Ireland) for volume and #11 for quality. 55% of their shots come from inside the box (league 61%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.7 shots per match
#6/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bohemian FC 16.0
#2 St. Patrick's Athletic 14.9
#3 Shamrock Rovers 14.7
#4 Shelbourne 14.6
#5 Galway United 14.0
#6 Bray Wanderers 12.7
#7 Derry City 12.1
#8 Waterford FC 11.4
#9 Cork City 11.3
=10 Drogheda United 11.1
=10 Sligo Rovers 11.1
#12 Treaty United FC 11.0
League avg
13.1
Total
38 shots from 3 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#11/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Sligo Rovers 0.11
#2 Derry City 0.10
#3 Treaty United FC 0.10
#4 Galway United 0.09
#5 Waterford FC 0.09
#6 Shelbourne 0.09
#7 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.09
#8 Bohemian FC 0.09
#9 Drogheda United 0.09
#10 Shamrock Rovers 0.08
#11 Bray Wanderers 0.08
#12 Cork City 0.08
League avg
0.09
Total
3.00 npxG from 38 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.3 shots per match
#1/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bray Wanderers 9.3
#2 Shamrock Rovers 9.8
#3 St. Patrick's Athletic 10.4
#4 Derry City 10.5
#5 Shelbourne 11.4
#6 Bohemian FC 11.5
#7 Treaty United FC 12.7
#8 Drogheda United 14.4
#9 Galway United 14.6
#10 Cork City 15.6
#11 Waterford FC 16.0
#12 Sligo Rovers 16.9
League avg
13.1
Total
28 shots allowed from 3 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#12/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Treaty United FC 0.06
#2 Shelbourne 0.08
#3 Shamrock Rovers 0.08
#4 Bohemian FC 0.09
#5 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.09
#6 Drogheda United 0.09
#7 Sligo Rovers 0.09
#8 Galway United 0.09
#9 Cork City 0.09
#10 Derry City 0.10
#11 Waterford FC 0.10
#12 Bray Wanderers 0.13
League avg
0.09
Total
3.57 npxGA from 28 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

55% inside the box

League avg 61%

From 21 of 38 shots over 3 matches

Early-season figure: after 3 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

54% allowed inside the box

League avg 61%

From 15 of 28 shots allowed over 3 matches

Early-season figure: after 3 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Bray Wanderers home and away xG

Bray Wanderers per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away only 1 match with xG
Matches 3 2 with xG 1
xG / match 1.42 0.17
xGA / match 1.08 1.42
xGD / match +0.34 -1.25
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.59 0.30

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Bray Wanderers match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
1
xG / match
0.17
xGA / match
1.42
xGD / match
-1.25
Points
3 of 3
  1. Fri 24/10 University College Dublin A Against the chances xG 0.17 xGA 1.42 xGD -1.25

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Bray Wanderers in Premier Division (Ireland)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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