Premier Division (Ireland) expected points table 2026/2027
Every Premier Division (Ireland) club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
St. Patrick's Athletic lead on expected points with 59.84 over 32 matches with xG. That is 7.44 clear of Bohemian FC. Shelbourne sit 2 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 6 against 4 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Patrick's Athletic STP | 32 | 59 | 59.84 | −0.84 | 1 | Same place as on expected points |
| 2 | Bohemian FC BOH | 31 | 56 | 52.40 | +0.60 | 3 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers SHA | 31 | 59 | 48.86 | +10.14 | 2 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 4 | Shelbourne SHE | 32 | 40 | 47.31 | −7.31 | 6 | 2 places below its expected-points rank |
| 5 | Derry City DER | 32 | 41 | 43.84 | −2.84 | 4 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 6 | Dundalk FC DUN | 32 | 41 | 42.38 | −1.38 | 5 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 7 | Galway United GAL | 32 | 38 | 40.99 | −2.99 | 7 | Same place as on expected points |
| 8 | Waterford FC WAT | 32 | 34 | 37.37 | −3.37 | 8 | Same place as on expected points |
| 9 | Drogheda United DRO | 32 | 34 | 35.22 | −1.22 | 9 | Same place as on expected points |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers SLI | 32 | 23 | 27.78 | −4.78 | 10 | Same place as on expected points |
xG is available for 30 of 31 matches for Bohemian FC. xG is available for 31 of 32 matches for Dundalk FC. For those clubs every expected figure counts only the matches with xG, and the goals it is compared with come from those same matches.
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.