Dundalk FC 2:3 Shelbourne: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Dundalk FC Home 1.18 xG

Shelbourne Away 2.18 xG

23 The scoreline reflected the chances

Dundalk FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. Shelbourne won 3–2. The biggest difference was Shelbourne's attack: 2.18 xG against 1.44 projected (+0.74). Dundalk FC produced 1.18 xG against 1.71 projected (−0.53).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Dundalk FC: 43%
Draw: 27%
Shelbourne: 30% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Dundalk FC 1.71 1.18 -0.53

Shelbourne 1.44 2.18 +0.74

Shelbourne produced 0.74 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Dundalk FC Shelbourne

Shots: 14; 16
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 8; 11
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Dundalk FC

1.59 xG created 1.95 xGA

D 1.74 created, 1.35 conceded against Sligo Rovers
L 1.72 created, 2.66 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
L 2.21 created, 0.79 conceded against Galway United
W 3.04 created, 1.89 conceded against Drogheda United
D 0.55 created, 2.04 conceded against Waterford FC
L 0.26 created, 2.94 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic

Shelbourne

1.30 xG created 1.56 xGA

L 1.47 created, 1.67 conceded against Waterford FC
L 1.12 created, 3.15 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
D 2.26 created, 0.54 conceded against Galway United
D 0.82 created, 1.65 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
L 0.82 created, 1.05 conceded against Derry City
L 1.32 created, 1.32 conceded against Drogheda United

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Dundalk FC: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged7 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Dundalk FC against Shelbourne before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+9.7%	Won
Dundalk FC 2+ goals	2.00	+5.4%	Won
Dundalk FC to score	1.22	+3.1%	Won
Shelbourne 2+ goals	2.38	+2.5%	Won
Shelbourne to score	1.30	+2.4%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+1.5%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	+1.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dundalk FC	42.6%	40.1%	+2.5 pp	2.35
Draw	27.4%	26.4%	+1.1 pp	3.65
Shelbourne	30.0%	33.5%	−3.5 pp	3.33

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dundalk FC to score	84.3%	76.6%	+7.7 pp	1.19
Dundalk FC not to score	15.7%	23.4%	−7.7 pp	6.39
Shelbourne to score	78.8%	72.3%	+6.4 pp	1.27
Shelbourne not to score	21.2%	27.7%	−6.4 pp	4.71
Both teams to score	67.9%	57.7%	+10.2 pp	1.47
Both teams not to score	32.1%	42.3%	−10.2 pp	3.11
Dundalk FC 2+ goals	52.7%	46.3%	+6.4 pp	1.90
Dundalk FC at most 1 goal	47.3%	53.7%	−6.4 pp	2.12
Shelbourne 2+ goals	43.2%	39.2%	+3.9 pp	2.32
Shelbourne at most 1 goal	56.8%	60.8%	−3.9 pp	1.76
Over 1.5 goals	85.9%	79.2%	+6.7 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	14.1%	20.8%	−6.7 pp	7.07
Over 2.5 goals	62.8%	58.2%	+4.6 pp	1.59
Under 2.5 goals	37.2%	41.8%	−4.6 pp	2.69

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Dundalk FC sample: 20 matches
Shelbourne sample: 20 matches
Computed: 46 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.