Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:45
Kicked offSligo Rovers – Galway United
Model updated 5 September, 15:00 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sligo Rovers
- 36%
- Draw
- 28%
- Galway United
- 36%
| Sligo Rovers | Draw | Galway United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.79 | 3.53 | 2.79 |
- Total goals
- 3.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Sligo Rovers to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 9th
- Sligo Rovers attack v Galway United defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 7th
- Sligo Rovers defence v Galway United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.68 vs -0.38
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.52 – 1.52
- Sligo Rovers v Galway United
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sligo Rovers | Galway United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.03 · 10th | (better) 1.35 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.88 · 10th | (better) 1.51 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.85 · 10th | (better) -0.16 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 0.87 · 10th | (better) 1.28 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.68 | (better) -0.38 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sligo Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Galway United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sligo Rovers
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Galway United
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 15:00
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.