Monday, 14/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeSligo Rovers 1:3 Galway United
Sligo Rovers were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. Galway United won 3–1. The biggest difference was Galway United's attack: 2.42 xG against 1.57 projected (+0.85). Sligo Rovers produced 0.97 xG against 1.62 projected (−0.65).
The model against the result
- Sligo Rovers
- 38%
- Draw
- 28%
- Galway United
- 35% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Galway United produced 0.85 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 13
- On target
- 4
- 5
- Inside the box
- 13
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.19
Recent form
0.88 xG created 1.49 xGA
- D 1.69 created, 1.03 conceded against Drogheda United
- D 1.35 created, 1.74 conceded against Dundalk FC
- L 0.23 created, 1.68 conceded against Derry City
- D 0.66 created, 1.59 conceded against Waterford FC
- L 0.15 created, 1.48 conceded against Bohemian FC
- L 1.22 created, 1.42 conceded against Drogheda United
1.14 xG created 1.78 xGA
- D 1.27 created, 0.62 conceded against Waterford FC
- D 0.24 created, 2.23 conceded against Bohemian FC
- D 2.18 created, 0.60 conceded against Drogheda United
- W 0.79 created, 2.21 conceded against Dundalk FC
- D 0.54 created, 2.26 conceded against Shelbourne
- L 1.84 created, 2.77 conceded against Bohemian FC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers 2+ goals | 2.50 | +24.8% | Lost |
| Sligo Rovers to win | 3.10 | +16.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +15.2% | Won |
| Sligo Rovers to score | 1.33 | +10.3% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +8.6% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +5.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers | 37.6% | 29.4% | +8.1 pp | 2.66 |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.1% | +1.4 pp | 3.64 |
| Galway United | 34.9% | 44.5% | −9.6 pp | 2.86 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers to score | 82.8% | 70.9% | +11.9 pp | 1.21 |
| Sligo Rovers not to score | 17.2% | 29.1% | −11.9 pp | 5.80 |
| Galway United to score | 81.8% | 78.3% | +3.5 pp | 1.22 |
| Galway United not to score | 18.2% | 21.7% | −3.5 pp | 5.49 |
| Both teams to score | 69.1% | 55.7% | +13.4 pp | 1.45 |
| Both teams not to score | 30.9% | 44.3% | −13.4 pp | 3.24 |
| Sligo Rovers 2+ goals | 49.9% | 37.5% | +12.4 pp | 2.00 |
| Sligo Rovers at most 1 goal | 50.1% | 62.5% | −12.4 pp | 2.00 |
| Galway United 2+ goals | 48.0% | 48.5% | −0.6 pp | 2.09 |
| Galway United at most 1 goal | 52.0% | 51.5% | +0.6 pp | 1.92 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.5% | 76.6% | +9.9 pp | 1.16 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.5% | 23.4% | −9.9 pp | 7.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | 55.3% | +8.6 pp | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | 44.7% | −8.6 pp | 2.77 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sligo Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Galway United sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 12 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.