Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Aston Villa – Tottenham Hotspur
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Aston Villa
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- Tottenham Hotspur
- 30%
| Aston Villa | Draw | Tottenham Hotspur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.58 | 3.22 | 3.32 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Aston Villa
39% Aston Villa to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 8th
- Aston Villa attack v Tottenham Hotspur defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 20th
- Aston Villa defence v Tottenham Hotspur attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.71 vs -0.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.37 – 1.20
- Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur
Squad news
Aston Villa
13 listed-
Ollie Watkins 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Ian Maatsen 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Pau Torres 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Brian Madjo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Leon Bailey 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Olympiakos permanently
-
Marco Bizot 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Back injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Kosta Nedeljkovic 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Luka Lynch 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan until January
-
Amadou Onana 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Samuel Iling-Junior 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Leon Goretzka 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lucas Digne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently
-
Alysson 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Tottenham Hotspur
15 listed-
Dane Scarlett 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Leyton Orient permanently
-
Richarlison 0% chance
Forward · not included in squad.
-
Djed Spence 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Souza 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Porto on loan for the rest of the season
-
Guglielmo Vicario 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Cristian Romero 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Atletico Madrid permanently
-
Pape Matar Sarr 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mikey Moore 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined FC Köln on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mykhailo Mudryk 0% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Ashley Phillips 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Middlesbrough permanently
-
Xavi Simons 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Wilson Odobert 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Dejan Kulusevski 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Pedro Porro Sauceda 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Jan Paul van Hecke 75% chance
Defender · Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aston Villa | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 20th | (better) 1.00 · 18th |
| xGA / match | 1.84 · 19th | (better) 1.56 · 11th |
| xGD / match | -0.94 · 20th | (better) -0.56 · 16th |
| xPts / match | 0.90 · 18th | (better) 1.17 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) -0.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Aston Villa clean sheet
- 27%
- Aston Villa 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Tottenham Hotspur sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Aston Villa
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Tottenham Hotspur
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.