Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:00
6d 16h to kick-offAston Villa – Brentford
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Aston Villa
- 35%
- Draw
- 29%
- Brentford
- 36%
| Aston Villa | Draw | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.85 | 3.43 | 2.80 |
- Total goals
- 2.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
Aston Villa
- Model
- 35.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 36.6%
- Probability gap
- −1.5 pp
- Edge
- −10.5%
- Fair odds
- 2.85
- Market odds
- 2.55 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.99
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.0%
-
Draw
- Model
- 29.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.7%
- Probability gap
- +2.4 pp
- Edge
- +2.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.43
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.60
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.0%
-
Brentford
- Model
- 35.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 36.6%
- Probability gap
- −0.9 pp
- Edge
- −8.8%
- Fair odds
- 2.80
- Market odds
- 2.55 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.94
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.0%
Outcomes with value
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
36% Brentford to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 18th
- Brentford attack v Aston Villa defence
- Defence
- 16th vs 15th
- Brentford defence v Aston Villa attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.34 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.44 – 1.45
- Aston Villa v Brentford
Squad news
Aston Villa
13 listed-
Ollie Watkins 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Ian Maatsen 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Pau Torres 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Brian Madjo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Leon Bailey 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Olympiakos permanently
-
Marco Bizot 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Back injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Kosta Nedeljkovic 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Luka Lynch 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan until January
-
Amadou Onana 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Samuel Iling-Junior 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Leon Goretzka 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lucas Digne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently
-
Alysson 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Brentford
6 listed-
Nathan Collins 0% chance
Defender · Calf injury - Unknown return date
-
Kaye Furo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Sepp van den Berg 0% chance
Defender · Groin injury - Unknown return date
-
Mathias Jensen 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Antoni Milambo 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Josh Dasilva 0% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aston Villa | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 20th | (better) 1.96 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.84 · 19th | (better) 1.26 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.94 · 20th | (better) +0.70 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 0.90 · 18th | (better) 1.66 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) +0.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Brentford clean sheet
- 21%
- Brentford 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.2%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 9.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Brentford sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Aston Villa
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Brentford
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.