Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 18:30
Full timeBrentford 3:0 Tottenham Hotspur
Brentford were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Brentford's attack: 3.87 xG against 1.38 projected (+2.49). Tottenham Hotspur produced 0.57 xG against 1.21 projected (−0.64).
Goals
- 12' Keane Lewis-Potter Brentford · 0.31 xG chance 1–0
- 33' Vitaly Janelt Brentford · 0.37 xG chance 2–0
- 49' Michael Kayode Brentford · 0.74 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- Brentford
- 39% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- Tottenham Hotspur
- 30%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Brentford produced 2.49 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 26
- 9
- On target
- 8
- 4
- Inside the box
- 20
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.38
- 0.44
- Set-piece xG
- 1.87
- 0.03
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.23 for Brentford and 0.47 for Tottenham Hotspur.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 4.54 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Brentford
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.44 xG created 1.78 xGA
- D 1.43 created, 0.77 conceded against Fulham
- L 1.43 created, 1.27 conceded against Manchester United
- W 2.27 created, 0.92 conceded against West Ham United
- L 0.24 created, 2.98 conceded against Manchester City
- D 1.71 created, 1.72 conceded against Crystal Palace
- D 1.56 created, 3.04 conceded against Liverpool
1.14 xG created 0.69 xGA
- D 1.09 created, 0.82 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- W 1.05 created, 0.62 conceded against Wolverhampton
- W 0.99 created, 0.32 conceded against Aston Villa
- D 1.27 created, 1.34 conceded against Leeds United
- L 1.27 created, 0.63 conceded against Chelsea
- W 1.15 created, 0.41 conceded against Everton
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.70 | +14.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +12.2% | Lost |
| Tottenham Hotspur at most 1 goal | 1.62 | +5.6% | Won |
| Brentford at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +1.8% | Lost |
| Tottenham Hotspur not to score | 3.75 | +1.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 38.7% | 39.7% | −1.0 pp | 2.58 |
| Draw | 31.0% | 25.7% | +5.3 pp | 3.22 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 30.3% | 34.6% | −4.3 pp | 3.30 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to score | 77.5% | 76.6% | +0.9 pp | 1.29 |
| Brentford not to score | 22.5% | 23.4% | −0.9 pp | 4.45 |
| Tottenham Hotspur to score | 73.0% | 75.0% | −2.0 pp | 1.37 |
| Tottenham Hotspur not to score | 27.0% | 25.0% | +2.0 pp | 3.71 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 58.9% | −0.4 pp | 1.71 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.6% | 41.1% | +0.4 pp | 2.41 |
| Brentford 2+ goals | 41.1% | 46.3% | −5.3 pp | 2.44 |
| Brentford at most 1 goal | 58.9% | 53.7% | +5.3 pp | 1.70 |
| Tottenham Hotspur 2+ goals | 34.6% | 42.3% | −7.7 pp | 2.89 |
| Tottenham Hotspur at most 1 goal | 65.4% | 57.7% | +7.7 pp | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | 78.0% | −0.7 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 22.0% | +0.7 pp | 4.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 56.9% | −7.9 pp | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | 43.1% | +7.9 pp | 1.96 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Brentford sample
- 20 matches
- Tottenham Hotspur sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.