Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 16:00
Full timeEverton 2:0 Crystal Palace
Everton were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Crystal Palace's attack: 1.96 xG against 1.21 projected (+0.75).
Goals
- 42' Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Everton · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
- 53' Thierno Barry Everton · 0.43 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Everton
- 38% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- Crystal Palace
- 31%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Crystal Palace produced 0.75 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 11
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 11
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.18
- Open play xG
- 0.69
- 2.03
- Set-piece xG
- 0.49
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.16 for Everton and 2.04 for Crystal Palace.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 3.21 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Everton
- Crystal Palace
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.33 xG created 1.44 xGA
- L 0.79 created, 1.45 conceded against Liverpool
- L 1.45 created, 1.17 conceded against West Ham United
- D 2.72 created, 1.54 conceded against Manchester City
- D 1.59 created, 2.56 conceded against Crystal Palace
- L 1.04 created, 0.76 conceded against Sunderland
- L 0.41 created, 1.15 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
1.52 xG created 1.79 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +9.5% | Lost |
| Crystal Palace to win | 3.30 | +2.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +1.1% | Lost |
| Everton at most 1 goal | 1.67 | +0.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 37.6% | 44.1% | −6.5 pp | 2.66 |
| Draw | 31.3% | 27.1% | +4.2 pp | 3.20 |
| Crystal Palace | 31.1% | 28.8% | +2.3 pp | 3.22 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton to score | 76.6% | 76.6% | −0.0 pp | 1.31 |
| Everton not to score | 23.4% | 23.4% | +0.0 pp | 4.27 |
| Crystal Palace to score | 73.1% | 68.7% | +4.3 pp | 1.37 |
| Crystal Palace not to score | 26.9% | 31.3% | −4.3 pp | 3.71 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 53.3% | +4.5 pp | 1.73 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.2% | 46.7% | −4.5 pp | 2.37 |
| Everton 2+ goals | 39.7% | 44.3% | −4.6 pp | 2.52 |
| Everton at most 1 goal | 60.3% | 55.7% | +4.6 pp | 1.66 |
| Crystal Palace 2+ goals | 34.7% | 33.7% | +0.9 pp | 2.89 |
| Crystal Palace at most 1 goal | 65.3% | 66.3% | −0.9 pp | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | 74.5% | +2.1 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 25.5% | −2.1 pp | 4.27 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 50.0% | −2.0 pp | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 50.0% | +2.0 pp | 1.92 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Everton sample
- 20 matches
- Crystal Palace sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.