Newcastle United 4:3 Leeds United: xG & match report · Premier League

Wednesday, 07/01/2026 at 21:15

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Newcastle United Home 2.72 xG · 18 shots

Leeds United Away 2.05 xG · 14 shots

43 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

32' Brenden Aaronson Leeds United · 0.07 xG chance 0–1
36' Harvey Barnes Newcastle United · 0.11 xG chance 1–1
45' Dominic Calvert-Lewin (pen.) Leeds United · 0.82 xG chance 1–2
54' Joelinton Newcastle United · 0.08 xG chance 2–2
79' Brenden Aaronson Leeds United · 0.11 xG chance 2–3
90' Bruno Guimarães (pen.) Newcastle United · 0.82 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
90' Harvey Barnes Newcastle United · 0.08 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.

The shots behind it

Newcastle United Leeds United

Shots: 18; 14
On target: 8; 6
Inside the box: 15; 12
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.15
Open play xG: 0.46; 0.76
Set-piece xG: 1.48; 0.52
Penalties: 1; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.95 for Newcastle United and 1.26 for Leeds United.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 4.86 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Newcastle United
Leeds United
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Newcastle United

1.65 xG created 1.02 xGA

W 1.77 created, 1.61 conceded against Burnley
L 0.24 created, 0.30 conceded against Sunderland
D 2.31 created, 1.22 conceded against Chelsea
L 1.18 created, 1.17 conceded against Manchester United
W 2.31 created, 1.09 conceded against Burnley
W 2.08 created, 0.70 conceded against Crystal Palace

Leeds United

1.58 xG created 1.43 xGA

D 1.51 created, 1.91 conceded against Liverpool
D 1.52 created, 0.72 conceded against Brentford
W 2.67 created, 1.56 conceded against Crystal Palace
D 2.17 created, 0.70 conceded against Sunderland
D 0.69 created, 2.08 conceded against Liverpool
D 0.90 created, 1.58 conceded against Manchester United

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Newcastle United: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Leeds United 0:0 Newcastle United 30/08/2025 xG 0.69 – 0.46

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.