Brinje Grosuplje 4:1 NK Celje: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Brinje Grosuplje Home 1.56 xG

NK Celje Away 1.48 xG

41 The chances were evenly matched

NK Celje were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Brinje Grosuplje won 4–1. The biggest difference was Brinje Grosuplje's attack: 1.56 xG against 1.23 projected (+0.33).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Brinje Grosuplje: 30% What happened
Draw: 30%
NK Celje: 40%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Brinje Grosuplje 1.23 1.56 +0.33

NK Celje 1.45 1.48 +0.03

Brinje Grosuplje produced 0.33 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Brinje Grosuplje NK Celje

Shots: 10; 11
On target: 7; 2
Inside the box: 8; 8
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Brinje Grosuplje

1.16 xG created 1.74 xGA

W 1.14 created, 0.84 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
L 0.35 created, 1.38 conceded against NK Maribor
D 0.69 created, 1.67 conceded against FC Koper
D 2.07 created, 1.28 conceded against NK Bravo
L 1.48 created, 1.72 conceded against NŠ Mura
L 1.20 created, 3.53 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo

NK Celje

1.86 xG created 1.04 xGA

L 1.74 created, 1.61 conceded against FC Koper
W 2.45 created, 0.49 conceded against ND Primorje
D 1.94 created, 0.96 conceded against NŠ Mura
D 1.35 created, 1.44 conceded against NK Maribor
W 1.59 created, 0.44 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
W 2.11 created, 1.29 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Brinje Grosuplje against NK Celje before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.80	+14.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.25	+13.7%	Lost
Brinje Grosuplje to win	3.75	+9.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Brinje Grosuplje	29.5%	24.0%	+5.5 pp	3.39
Draw	30.2%	23.7%	+6.5 pp	3.31
NK Celje	40.2%	52.2%	−12.0 pp	2.49

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.2%	58.9%	+1.3 pp	1.66
Both teams not to score	39.8%	41.1%	−1.3 pp	2.51
Over 1.5 goals	79.0%	78.3%	+0.7 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.0%	21.7%	−0.7 pp	4.77
Over 2.5 goals	51.6%	58.2%	−6.6 pp	1.94
Under 2.5 goals	48.4%	41.8%	+6.6 pp	2.07

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Brinje Grosuplje sample: 3 matches
NK Celje sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Brinje Grosuplje has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.