PrvaLiga (Slovenia) expected points table 2026/2027
Every PrvaLiga (Slovenia) club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
NK Maribor lead on expected points with 18.43 over 10 matches with xG. That is 2.38 clear of NK Olimpija Ljubljana. NK Bravo sit 5 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 3 against 8 on expected points. NK Celje sit 3 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 7 against 4 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NK Maribor NKM | 10 | 20 | 18.43 | +1.57 | 1 | Same place as on expected points |
| 2 | NK Olimpija Ljubljana NKO | 10 | 14 | 16.05 | −2.05 | 4 | 2 places below its expected-points rank |
| 3 | FC Koper FCK | 10 | 18 | 15.47 | +2.53 | 2 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 4 | NK Celje NKC | 9 | 12 | 14.25 | −5.25 | 7 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 5 | NK Nafta Lendava 1903 NKN | 10 | 13 | 13.73 | −0.73 | 6 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 6 | NŠ Mura NŠM | 10 | 9 | 12.18 | −3.18 | 9 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 7 | NK Aluminij Kidričevo NKA | 10 | 13 | 11.65 | +1.35 | 5 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 8 | NK Bravo NKB | 10 | 18 | 10.62 | +7.38 | 3 | 5 places above its expected-points rank |
| 9 | Brinje Grosuplje BRI | 10 | 11 | 10.61 | +0.39 | 8 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 10 | Kalcer Radomlje KAL | 9 | 5 | 8.88 | −3.88 | 10 | Same place as on expected points |
xG is available for 9 of 10 matches for NK Aluminij Kidričevo. xG is available for 8 of 9 matches for NK Celje. For those clubs every expected figure counts only the matches with xG, and the goals it is compared with come from those same matches.
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.