Akron Togliatti 2:2 CSKA Moscow: xG & match report · Russian Premier League

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Russian Premier League

Akron Togliatti Home

CSKA Moscow Away

CSKA Moscow were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 2–2.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Akron Togliatti: 35%
Draw: 26% What happened
CSKA Moscow: 39%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Akron Togliatti

1.24 xG created 1.89 xGA

W 0.51 created, 1.17 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
L 0.35 created, 1.30 conceded against FK Krasnodar
L 1.76 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Rostov
L 2.02 created, 4.23 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
W 1.53 created, 1.01 conceded against Rotor Volgograd
L 1.28 created, 2.35 conceded against Rotor Volgograd

CSKA Moscow

1.21 xG created 1.56 xGA

D 0.17 created, 0.90 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
D 0.85 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Rostov
D 1.18 created, 1.88 conceded against Rubin Kazan
L 1.35 created, 1.93 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
W 2.54 created, 1.87 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
W 1.19 created, 2.03 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Akron Togliatti: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Akron Togliatti against CSKA Moscow before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Akron Togliatti to win	4.62	+61.3%	Lost
Draw	4.04	+5.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Akron Togliatti	34.9%	20.8%	+14.1 pp	2.87
Draw	26.0%	23.8%	+2.2 pp	3.84
CSKA Moscow	39.1%	55.4%	−16.3 pp	2.56

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Akron Togliatti sample: 20 matches
CSKA Moscow sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.