Dynamo Moscow 1:0 Orenburg: xG & match report · Russian Premier League

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · Russian Premier League

Dynamo Moscow Home

Orenburg Away

Dynamo Moscow were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 1–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Dynamo Moscow: 47% What happened
Draw: 26%
Orenburg: 26%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Dynamo Moscow

1.38 xG created 1.51 xGA

D 2.46 created, 0.66 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
L 1.43 created, 1.65 conceded against Rubin Kazan
W 1.72 created, 0.98 conceded against FC Sochi
D 0.44 created, 2.04 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
W 1.31 created, 1.32 conceded against FK Krasnodar
W 0.91 created, 2.40 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad

Orenburg

1.70 xG created 1.51 xGA

L 1.15 created, 1.85 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
W 2.94 created, 0.93 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
W 1.37 created, 1.49 conceded against FC Rostov
L 1.14 created, 1.06 conceded against FC Sochi
W 2.22 created, 1.04 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
L 1.39 created, 2.69 conceded against FK Krasnodar

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Dynamo Moscow: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Dynamo Moscow against Orenburg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Orenburg to win	6.40	+67.4%	Lost
Draw	4.48	+18.2%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.68	+9.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dynamo Moscow	47.5%	63.6%	−16.1 pp	2.11
Draw	26.4%	21.4%	+4.9 pp	3.79
Orenburg	26.2%	15.0%	+11.2 pp	3.82

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	65.1%	57.1%	+8.0 pp	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	34.9%	42.9%	−8.0 pp	2.87

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Dynamo Moscow sample: 20 matches
Orenburg sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.