Orenburg 2:2 Akron Togliatti: xG & match report · Russian Premier League

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 13:00

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Match report · Russian Premier League

Orenburg Home

Akron Togliatti Away

Orenburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. It finished 2–2.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Orenburg: 55%
Draw: 24% What happened
Akron Togliatti: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Orenburg

1.70 xG created 1.51 xGA

L 1.15 created, 1.85 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
W 2.94 created, 0.93 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
W 1.37 created, 1.49 conceded against FC Rostov
L 1.14 created, 1.06 conceded against FC Sochi
W 2.22 created, 1.04 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
L 1.39 created, 2.69 conceded against FK Krasnodar

Akron Togliatti

1.24 xG created 1.89 xGA

W 0.51 created, 1.17 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
L 0.35 created, 1.30 conceded against FK Krasnodar
L 1.76 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Rostov
L 2.02 created, 4.23 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
W 1.53 created, 1.01 conceded against Rotor Volgograd
L 1.28 created, 2.35 conceded against Rotor Volgograd

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Orenburg: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Orenburg against Akron Togliatti before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.78	+22.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Orenburg	55.5%	54.8%	+0.7 pp	1.80
Draw	23.9%	24.9%	−1.0 pp	4.18
Akron Togliatti	20.6%	20.3%	+0.3 pp	4.85

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	69.0%	53.6%	+15.3 pp	1.45
Under 2.5 goals	31.0%	46.4%	−15.3 pp	3.22

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Orenburg sample: 20 matches
Akron Togliatti sample: 20 matches
Computed: 21 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 22 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.