Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 14:15
6d 14h to kick-offFakel Voronezh – Lokomotiv Moscow
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Fakel Voronezh
- 37%
- Draw
- 28%
- Lokomotiv Moscow
- 35%
| Fakel Voronezh | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.69 | 3.59 | 2.86 |
- Total goals
- 3.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
Fakel Voronezh
- Model
- 37.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 32.9%
- Probability gap
- +4.3 pp
- Edge
- +7.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.69
- Market odds
- 2.89 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.82
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.3%
-
Draw
- Model
- 27.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 29.3%
- Probability gap
- −1.4 pp
- Edge
- −9.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.59
- Market odds
- 3.24 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.77
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.3%
-
Lokomotiv Moscow
- Model
- 35.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 37.8%
- Probability gap
- −2.9 pp
- Edge
- −12.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.86
- Market odds
- 2.51 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.00
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.3%
Outcomes with value
Fakel Voronezh to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
Fakel Voronezh to win
Model 37.2% vs. bookmaker 32.9%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Fakel Voronezh to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The fit has never seen one of these two sides play, so everything behind this edge rests on an exactly average side standing in for it. There is no reading of these two clubs here to explain.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Fakel Voronezh | Lokomotiv Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored minus expected | +0.00 | -0.44 |
| Points won minus expected | +0.00 | -0.06 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Fakel Voronezh to win
- Projected goals
- 1.58 – 1.53
- Fakel Voronezh v Lokomotiv Moscow
One of these two sides has never played a match the fit could read, so these are the figures an exactly average side would have produced.
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Fakel Voronezh clean sheet
- 19%
- Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.0%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Fakel Voronezh sample
- 0 matches
- Lokomotiv Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Fakel Voronezh
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Lokomotiv Moscow
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Fakel Voronezh — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.